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The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply

  • Christoph Basten
  • Cathérine Koch

We identify the causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and supply in Switzerland by exploiting exogenous shocks to immigration and thereby to house prices. Detailed micro data allow us to observe multiple offers for each mortgage request. We find a 1% increase in house prices to raise the requested mortgage amount by 0.52%. Due to positive feedback effects, the entire partial correlation is 0.78%. While we find higher house prices to increase mortgage demand, they induce banks to make fewer offers and charge higher rates, especially later in the boom and especially for highly leveraged households.

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File URL: http://www.econ.uzh.ch/static/wp/econwp140.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics - University of Zurich in its series ECON - Working Papers with number 140.

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Date of creation: Feb 2014
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Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:140
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  1. Accetturo, Antonio & Manaresi, Francesco & Mocetti, Sauro & Olivieri, Elisabetta, 2014. "Don't stand so close to me: The urban impact of immigration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 45-56.
  2. Hunt, Jennifer & Gauthier-Loiselle, Marjolaine, 2009. "How Much Does Immigration Boost Innovation?," IZA Discussion Papers 3921, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2011. "Tranching, CDS and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1809, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  4. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2012. "Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation," NBER Working Papers 17832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2015. "Household leveraging and deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 3-20, January.
  8. Kenneth N Kuttner & Ilhyock Shim, 2013. "Can non-interest rate policies stabilise housing markets? Evidence from a panel of 57 economies," BIS Working Papers 433, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Ozer-Balli, Hatice & Sørensen, Bent E, 2010. "Interaction Effects in Econometrics," CEPR Discussion Papers 7929, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Bartel, Ann P, 1989. "Where Do the New U.S. Immigrants Live?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(4), pages 371-91, October.
  11. Coleman IV, Major & LaCour-Little, Michael & Vandell, Kerry D., 2008. "Subprime lending and the housing bubble: Tail wags dog?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 272-290, December.
  12. Fischer, Andreas M., 2012. "Immigrant language barriers and house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 389-395.
  13. Manju Puri & Jörg Rocholl & Sascha Steffen, 2011. "Global retail lending in the aftermath of the US financial crisis: Distinguishing between supply and demand effects," NBER Working Papers 16967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Jean Imbs & Giovanni Favara, 2011. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," 2011 Meeting Papers 1342, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. David Card, 1997. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," NBER Working Papers 5927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Albert Saiz, 2003. "Immigration and housing rents in American cities," Working Papers 03-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  17. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Pau Rabanal & Christopher W. Crowe & Deniz O Igan, 2011. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability; Options to Deal with Real Estate Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/02, International Monetary Fund.
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