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The causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and mortgage supply

  • Christoph Basten
  • Cathérine Koch

We identify the causal effect of house prices on mortgage demand and supply in Switzerland by exploiting exogenous shocks to immigration and thereby to house prices. Detailed micro data allow us to observe multiple offers for each mortgage request. We find a 1% increase in house prices to raise the requested mortgage amount by 0.52%. Due to positive feedback effects, the entire partial correlation is 0.78%. While we find higher house prices to increase mortgage demand, they induce banks to make fewer offers and charge higher rates, especially later in the boom and especially for highly leveraged households.

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File URL: http://www.econ.uzh.ch/static/wp/econwp140.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics - University of Zurich in its series ECON - Working Papers with number 140.

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Date of creation: Feb 2014
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Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:140
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  1. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2011. "Tranching, CDS and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1809R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  3. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2012. "Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation," NBER Working Papers 17832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  10. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Ilhyock Shim, 2013. "Can Non-Interest Rate Policies Stabilize Housing Markets? Evidence from a Panel of 57 Economies," NBER Working Papers 19723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Pau Rabanal & Christopher W. Crowe & Deniz Igan, 2011. "Policies for Macrofinancial Stability; Options to Deal with Real Estate Booms," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/02, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Antonio Accetturo & Francesco Manaresi & Sauro Mocetti & Elisabetta Olivieri, 2012. "Don't stand so close to me: the urban impact of immigration," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 866, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  14. Kathrin Degen & Andreas M. Fischer, 2010. "Immigration and Swiss House Prices," Working Papers 2010-16, Swiss National Bank.
  15. Gonzalez, Libertad & Ortega, Francesc, 2009. "Immigration and Housing Booms: Evidence from Spain," IZA Discussion Papers 4333, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. Puri, Manju & Rocholl, Jörg & Steffen, Sascha, 2011. "Global retail lending in the aftermath of the US financial crisis: Distinguishing between supply and demand effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 556-578, June.
  17. Fischer, Andreas M., 2012. "Immigrant language barriers and house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 389-395.
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