Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation
We show that easier access to credit significantly increases house prices by using exogenous changes in the conforming loan limit as an instrument for lower cost of financing. Houses that become eligible for financing with a conforming loan show an increase in house value of 1.16 dollars per square foot (for an average price per square foot of 220 dollars) and higher overall house prices controlling for a rich set of house characteristics. However, these estimated coefficients are consistent with a local elasticity of house prices to interest rates that is lower than some previous studies proposed (below 10). In addition, loan to value ratios around the conforming loan limit deviate significantly from the common 80 percent norm, which confirms that it is an important factor in the financing choices of home buyers. In line with our interpretation, the results are stronger in the first half of our sample (1998-2001) when the conforming loan limit was more important, given that other forms of financing were less common and substantially more expensive. Results are also stronger in zip codes where personal income growth is low or declining, and in regions with lower elasticity of housing supply.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sydney Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Jack Favilukis, 2010.
"The Macroeconomic E¤ects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk-Sharing in General Equilibrium,"
2010 Meeting Papers
733, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk-Sharing in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 15988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jean Imbs & Giovanni Favara, 2011.
"Credit Supply and the Price of Housing,"
2011 Meeting Papers
1342, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb & Joseph Gyourko, 2012.
"Can Cheap Credit Explain the Housing Boom?,"
in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 301-359
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Annamaria Lusardi & Daniel Schneider & Peter Tufano, 2011.
"Financially Fragile Households: Evidence and Implications,"
CeRP Working Papers
116, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- Annamaria Lusardi & Daniel Schneider & Peter Tufano, 2011. "Financially Fragile Households: Evidence and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 83-150.
- Annamaria Lusardi & Daniel J. Schneider & Peter Tufano, 2011. "Financially Fragile Households: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 17072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496, November.
- Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 1995.
NBER Working Papers
5083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2005.
"The American Mortgage in Historical and International Context,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 93-114, Fall.
- Richard K. Green & Susan M. Wachter, 2005. "The American Mortgage in Historical and International Context," Working Paper 9094, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
- Giglio, Stefano & Pathak, Parag & Campbell, John Y., 2011.
"Forced Sales and House Prices,"
9887623, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012.
"Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, 03.
- DellAriccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence From The Subprime Mortgage Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dell’Ariccia, G. & Igan, D. & Laeven, L., 2009. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards : Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Discussion Paper 2009-46 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Deniz Igan, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards; Evidence From the Subprime Mortgage Market," IMF Working Papers 08/106, International Monetary Fund.
- David Genesove & Christopher J. Mayer, 1993.
"Equity and time to sale in the real estate market,"
93-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Genesove, D. & Mayer, C.J., 1994. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," Working papers 94-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- David Genesove & Christopher J. Mayer, 1994. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," NBER Working Papers 4861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chris Downing & Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2005. "An Empirical Test of a Two-Factor Mortgage Valuation Model: How Much Do House Prices Matter?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 681-710, December.
- Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296, August.
- Amir E. Khandani & Andrew W. Lo & Robert C. Merton, 2009.
"Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect,"
Harvard Business School Working Papers
10-023, Harvard Business School, revised Jul 2010.
- Brent W. Ambrose & Michael LaCour-Little & Anthony B. Sanders, 2004. "The Effect of Conforming Loan Status on Mortgage Yield Spreads: A Loan Level Analysis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(4), pages 541-569, December.
- Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17832. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.