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The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data

Author

Listed:
  • Martin Brown
  • Benjamin Suman Guin

Abstract

We study the exposure of mortgage borrowers in Switzerland to interest rate and house price risks and examine how the households’ choice of risky mortgages is related to individual interest rate expectations and risk-aversion. Our analysis is based on a unique data set of household mortgage applications from September 2012 until January 2014. Our assessment of risk exposure among mortgage borrowers in Switzerland is highly sensitive to the underlying assumptions on mortgage costs, household income and house value. Our main results suggest that the exposure of mortgage borrowers to interest rate and house price risks is limited in the medium term. We further document that the choice of mortgage contract seems to be more influenced by affordability concerns than risk concerns. In particular, individual interest rate expectations hardly affect mortgage contract choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Brown & Benjamin Suman Guin, 2015. "The Exposure of Mortgage Borrowers to Interest Rate Risk and House Price Risk – Evidence from Swiss Loan Application Data," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 151(II), pages 3-37, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2015-ii-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sven DAMEN & Erik BUYST, 2013. "The myopic choice between fixed and adjustable rate mortgages in Flanders," Working Papers Department of Economics ces13.15, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    2. John Y. Campbell & João F. Cocco, 2003. "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1449-1494.
    3. Luigi Guiso & Paola Sapienza & Luigi Zingales, 2013. "The Determinants of Attitudes toward Strategic Default on Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1473-1515, August.
    4. repec:spr:sjecst:v:153:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_bf03399433 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    6. Michael Ehrmann & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2014. "Household Risk Management and Actual Mortgage Choice in the Euro Area," Staff Working Papers 14-1, Bank of Canada.
    7. Brahima Coulibaly & Geng Li, 2009. "Choice of Mortgage Contracts: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(4), pages 659-673.
    8. Ronel Elul & Nicholas S. Souleles & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Dennis Glennon & Robert Hunt, 2010. "What "Triggers" Mortgage Default?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 490-494, May.
    9. Kathrin Degen & Andreas M. Fischer, 2017. "Immigration and Swiss House Prices," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(1), pages 15-36, January.
    10. Kathleen W. Johnson & Geng Li, 2014. "Are Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Borrowers Borrowing Constrained?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 457-471, June.
    11. Nicole Aregger & Martin Brown & Enzo Rossi, 2013. "Transaction Taxes, Capital Gains Taxes and House Prices," Working Papers 2013-02, Swiss National Bank.
    12. Sendhil Mullainathan & Markus Noeth & Antoinette Schoar, 2012. "The Market for Financial Advice: An Audit Study," NBER Working Papers 17929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Yvonne McCarthy & Kieran McQuinn, 2011. "How Are Irish Households Coping with their Mortgage Repayments? Information from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 42(1), pages 71-94.
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    15. Andra C. Ghent & Marianna Kudlyak, 2011. "Recourse and Residential Mortgage Default: Evidence from US States 1," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 3139-3186.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Brown & Matthias Hoffmann, 2016. "Relationship Banking in the Residential Mortgage Market? Evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 152(I), pages 23-48, March.
    2. Guin, Benjamin, 2017. "Culture and household saving," Working Paper Series 2069, European Central Bank.
    3. Blickle, Kristian & Brown, Martin, 2016. "Liquidity Constraints, Wealth Transfers and Home Ownership," Working Papers on Finance 1618, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    4. repec:spr:sjecst:v:152:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_bf03399421 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Christoph Basten & Mike Mariathasan, 2018. "How Banks Respond to Negative Interest Rates: Evidence from the Swiss Exemption Threshold," CESifo Working Paper Series 6901, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Basten, Christhoph & Koch, Cathérine, 2015. "Higher Bank Capital Requirements and Mortgage Pricing: Evidence from the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCB)," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 26, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage default; mortgage choice; household finance; mortgage risk;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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