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Urban house prices: A tale of 48 cities

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  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A.
  • Ulbricht, Dirk

Abstract

In this paper, the authors construct a unique data set of Internet offer prices for flats in 48 large European cities from 24 countries. The data are collected between January and May 2012 from 33 websites, where the advertisements of flats for sale are placed. Using the resulting sample of 750,000 announcements the authors compute the average city-specific house prices. Based on this information they investigate the determinants of the apartment prices. Four factors are found to be relevant for the flats' price level: income per capita, population density, unemployment rate, and income inequality. The results are robust both to excluding variables and to applying two alternative estimation techniques: OLS and quantile regression. Based on their estimation results the authors are able to identify the cities, where the prices are overvalued. This is a useful indication of a build-up of house price bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Ulbricht, Dirk, 2015. "Urban house prices: A tale of 48 cities," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201513
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2011. "What Causes Asset Price Bubble in an Emerging Economy? Some Empirical Evidence in the Housing Sector of India," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 215-237.
    2. Balázs Égert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 367-388, September.
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    9. Çağlayan Ebru & Arikan Eban, 2011. "Determinants of house prices in Istanbul: a quantile regression approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 305-317, February.
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    11. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    12. Karol Jan Borowiecki, 2009. "The Determinants of House Prices and Construction: An Empirical Investigation of the Swiss Housing Economy," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 193-220.
    13. Henger, Ralph & Voigtländer, Michael, 2014. "Transaktions- und Angebotsdaten von Wohnimmobilien. Eine Analyse für Hamburg," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln (IW) / Cologne Institute for Economic Research, vol. 41(4), pages 85-100.
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    15. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen & Dirk Ulbricht, 2014. "Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1417, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Vahram Stepanyan & Tigran Poghosyan & Aidyn Bibolov, 2010. "House Price Determinants in Selected Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Working Papers 10/104, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Eloisa T. Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2011. "Determinants of House Prices in Nine Asia-Pacific Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 163-204, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Density: A Synthesis," CESifo Working Paper Series 6744, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Gabriel M. Ahfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Compact City in Empirical Research: A Quantitative Literature Review," SERC Discussion Papers 0215, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    3. Ahfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2017. "The compact city in empirical research: A quantitative literature review," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83638, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Irina Krylova & Darya Kryutchenko, 2017. "Finding the Consumer Center of St. Petersburg?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 165/EC/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Julien Licheron, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of Rental Housing Regulations: The Case of Germany in 1950-2015," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1649, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt & Elisabetta Pietrostefani, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Density: A Synthesis," SERC Discussion Papers 0210, Spatial Economics Research Centre, LSE.
    7. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2017. "The economic effects of density: A synthesis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83628, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Irina Krylova & Darya Kryutchenko, 2017. "Where Is the Consumer Center of St. Petersburg?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1666, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    internet ads; flats' prices; large European cities; fundamental prices;

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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