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Urban house prices: A tale of 48 cities

Listed author(s):
  • Kholodilin, Konstantin A.
  • Ulbricht, Dirk

In this paper, the authors construct a unique data set of Internet offer prices for flats in 48 large European cities from 24 countries. The data are collected between January and May 2012 from 33 websites, where the advertisements of flats for sale are placed. Using the resulting sample of 750,000 announcements the authors compute the average city-specific house prices. Based on this information they investigate the determinants of the apartment prices. Four factors are found to be relevant for the flats' price level: income per capita, population density, unemployment rate, and income inequality. The results are robust both to excluding variables and to applying two alternative estimation techniques: OLS and quantile regression. Based on their estimation results the authors are able to identify the cities, where the prices are overvalued. This is a useful indication of a build-up of house price bubbles.

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2015-13.

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Date of creation: 2015
Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201513
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  1. Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Hrushikesh Mallick, 2011. "What Causes Asset Price Bubble in an Emerging Economy? Some Empirical Evidence in the Housing Sector of India," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 215-237.
  2. Balázs Égert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 367-388, September.
  3. Nicodemo, Catia & Raya, Josep Maria, 2012. "Change in the distribution of house prices across Spanish cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 739-748.
  4. Luc Anselin & Nancy Lozano-Gracia, 2008. "Errors in variables and spatial effects in hedonic house price models of ambient air quality," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 5-34, February.
  5. Ozanne, Larry & Thibodeau, Thomas, 1983. "Explaining metropolitan housing price differences," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 51-66, January.
  6. James M. Poterba, 1991. "House Price Dynamics: The Role of Tax Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 143-204.
  7. Clapp John M. & Giaccotto Carmelo, 1994. "The Influence of Economic Variables on Local House Price Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 161-183, September.
  8. Hort, Katinka, 1998. "The Determinants of Urban House Price Fluctuations in Sweden 1968-1994," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 93-120, June.
  9. Çağlayan Ebru & Arikan Eban, 2011. "Determinants of house prices in Istanbul: a quantile regression approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 305-317, February.
  10. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, September.
  11. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  12. Karol Jan Borowiecki, 2009. "The Determinants of House Prices and Construction: An Empirical Investigation of the Swiss Housing Economy," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 12(3), pages 193-220.
  13. Henger, Ralph & Voigtländer, Michael, 2014. "Transaktions- und Angebotsdaten von Wohnimmobilien. Eine Analyse für Hamburg," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln (IW) / Cologne Institute for Economic Research, vol. 41(4), pages 85-100.
  14. Bernhard Faller & Christoph Helbach, & Andreas Vater & Reiner Braun, 2009. "Möglichkeiten zur Bildung eines Regionalindex Wohnkosten unter Verwendung von Angebotsdaten," Research Notes of the German Council for Social and Economic Data 34, German Council for Social and Economic Data (RatSWD).
  15. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Claus Michelsen & Dirk Ulbricht, 2014. "Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1417, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  16. Vahram Stepanyan & Tigran Poghosyan & Aidyn Bibolov, 2010. "House Price Determinants in Selected Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Working Papers 10/104, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Eloisa T. Glindro & Tientip Subhanij & Jessica Szeto & Haibin Zhu, 2011. "Determinants of House Prices in Nine Asia-Pacific Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 163-204, September.
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