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Deconstructing systemic risk: A reverse stress testing approach


  • Javier Ojea-Ferreiro


The financial sector faces different systemic events. The early recognition of these events is a key step to monitor and track possible financial crises. Three main questions arise related to systemic risk, and they deal with their quantification, their probability of occurrence and the role of main contributors. This paper proposes a methodology based on a reverse stress test exercise to shed light on these questions. Time series and cross-section information regarding systemic risk are obtained. Further, an assessment of how these results of systemic assessment could change depending on key parameters in a Gaussian framework is undertaken and, finally, a small empirical exercise is performed.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Ojea-Ferreiro, 2021. "Deconstructing systemic risk: A reverse stress testing approach," CNMV Working Papers CNMV Working Papers no. 7, CNMV- Spanish Securities Markets Commission - Research and Statistics Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnv:wpaper:dt_74en

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Javier Ojea Ferreiro, 2018. "Contagion spillovers between sovereign and financial European sector from a Delta CoVaR approach," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-12, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    2. Sylvain Benoît & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "A Theoretical and Empirical Comparison of Systemic Risk Measures," Working Papers halshs-00746272, HAL.
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    7. Matteo Burzoni & Ilaria Peri & Chiara Maria Ruffo, 2016. "On the properties of the Lambda value at risk: robustness, elicitability and consistency," Papers 1603.09491,, revised Feb 2017.
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    14. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
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    More about this item


    Systemic risk; Expected Shortfall; financial model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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