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Estimating value-at-risk via Markov switching ARCH models - an empirical study on stock index returns

  • Ming-Yuan Leon Li
  • Hsiou-wei William Lin

This paper estimates the Value-at-Risk (VaR) on returns of stock market indexes including Dow Jones, Nikkei, Frankfurt Commerzbank index, and FTSE via Markov Switching ARCH (SWARCH) models. It is conjectured that structural changes contribute to non-normality in stock return distributions. SWARCH models, which admit parameters based on various states to control structural changes in the estimating periods, may thus help mitigate kurtosis, tail-fatness and skewness problems in estimating VaR. Significant kurtosis and skewness in return distributions of Dow Jones, Nikkei, FCI and FTSE and significant tail-fatness (tail-thinness) in the 1% (5%) region critical probability are documented. Moreover, it is shown that the more generalized SWARCH outshines both ARCH and GARCH in capturing non-normalities with respect to both in- and out-sample VaR violation rate tests.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 11 (2004)
Issue (Month): 11 ()
Pages: 679-691

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:11:y:2004:i:11:p:679-691
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  1. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 1999. "CAViaR: Conditional Value at Risk by Quantile Regression," NBER Working Papers 7341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
  3. Arturo Estrella & Darryll Hendricks & John Kambhu & Soo Shin & Stefan Walter, 1994. "Options positions: risk management and capital requirements," Research Paper 9415, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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