IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Nonlinearity and nonstationarity in international art market prices: evidence from Markov-switching ADF unit root tests

  • Emrah Çevik


  • Erdal Atukeren


  • Turhan Korkmaz


This study investigates the presence (or lack thereof) of nonlinear dynamics and nonstationarity in international art market prices using quarterly data for the period 1990–2011. We first test whether art market price indices follow stochastic trends or whether they are stationary by means of linear unit root tests. Next, we estimate the Markov regime-switching ADF model and test whether the linear or the nonlinear regime-switching model provides a better characterization of the global art market price series. We find that all art market price indices (except for Drawings) exhibit nonlinearity. To our knowledge, our study is the first one in the literature to suggest that a nonlinear (Markov regime-switching) model provides a better characterization of the behavior of price dynamics in international art markets. In particular, our findings indicate that the market for the overall global art market, paintings, old masters, sculptures, photographs, prints, and contemporary art might indeed be stationary while exhibiting nonlinear regime-switching properties. On the other hand, the market for drawings and the Nineteenth century art are found to be nonstationary. Overall, despite the common ground of a regime-switching framework, we still find that the sub-segments of the art market have their own inner regime switching dynamics and hence they can evolve differently overtime. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages: 675-695

in new window

Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:45:y:2013:i:2:p:675-695
Contact details of provider: Web page:

Order Information: Web:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. René Garcia, 1995. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-07, CIRANO.
  2. Camacho, Maximo, 2011. "Markov-switching models and the unit root hypothesis in real US GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 161-164, August.
  3. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 1998. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Staff Reports 41, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Goetzmann, W. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Spaenjers, C., 2010. "Art and Money," Discussion Paper 2010-08, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Binner, Jane M. & Elger, C. Thomas & Nilsson, Birger & Tepper, Jonathan A., 2006. "Predictable non-linearities in U.S. inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(3), pages 323-328, December.
  6. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
  7. Kathryn Graddy & Orley Ashenfelter, 2002. "Auctions and the Price of Art," Economics Series Working Papers 131, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2002. "Art as an Investment and the Underperformance of Masterpieces," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1656-1668, December.
  9. Campos, Nauro F & Leite Barbosa, Renata, 2008. "Paintings and Numbers: An Econometric Investigation of Sales Rates, Prices and Returns in Latin American Art Auctions," IZA Discussion Papers 3445, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  10. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  11. Ming-Yuan Leon Li & Hsiou-wei William Lin, 2004. "Estimating value-at-risk via Markov switching ARCH models - an empirical study on stock index returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(11), pages 679-691.
  12. Jin Seo Cho & Halbert White, 2007. "Testing for Regime Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1671-1720, November.
  13. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  14. Douglas Hodgson & Keith Vorkink, 2004. "Asset pricing theory and the valuation of Canadian paintings," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 629-655, August.
  15. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2006. "A Note on Financial Risk, Return and Asset Pricing in Australian Modern and Contemporary Art," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 73-84, March.
  16. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
  17. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  18. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  19. Michael P. Clements & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1998. "A comparison of the forecast performance of Markov-switching and threshold autoregressive models of US GNP," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C47-C75.
  20. Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.
  21. Wang, Ping & Theobald, Mike, 2008. "Regime-switching volatility of six East Asian emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 267-283, September.
  22. Goetzmann, William N, 1993. "Accounting for Taste: Art and the Financial Markets over Three Centuries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1370-76, December.
  23. Kanas, Angelos, 2006. "Purchasing Power Parity and Markov Regime Switching," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1669-1687, September.
  24. Charles R. Nelson & Jeremy M. Piger & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Markov regime-switching and unit root tests," International Finance Discussion Papers 683, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  25. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
  26. Silvestro Di Sanzo, 2009. "Testing for linearity in Markov switching models: a bootstrap approach," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 18(2), pages 153-168, July.
  27. Angelos Kanas, 2009. "Real exchange rate, stationarity, and economic fundamentals," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(4), pages 393-409, October.
  28. Kanas, Angelos & Genius, Margarita, 2005. "Regime (non)stationarity in the US/UK real exchange rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 407-413, June.
  29. Ming-Yuan Leon Li, 2007. "Volatility states and international diversification of international stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(14), pages 1867-1876.
  30. Tillmann, Peter, 2007. "Inflation regimes in the US term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 203-223, March.
  31. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1999. "Detecting Periodically Collapsing Bubbles: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 143-54, March-Apr.
  32. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:11:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Erdal Atukeren & Aylin Seçkin, 2007. "On the valuation of psychic returns to art market investments," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 26(5), pages 1-12.
  34. Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2003. "Art as an investment: Short and long-term comovements in major painting markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 649-668, November.
  35. Andrew C. Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2004. "Art as an investment: risk, return and portfolio diversification in major painting markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 44(2), pages 257-271.
  36. Erdal Atukeren & Aylin Seckin, 2009. "An analysis of the price dynamics between the Turkish and the international paintings markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(21), pages 1705-1714.
  37. Benjamin J. Burton & Joyce P. Jacobsen, 1999. "Measuring Returns on Investments in Collectibles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 193-212, Fall.
  38. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Non-stationarity and Non-linearity in Stock Prices: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11.
  39. Chanel, O., 1994. "Is Art Market Behavior Predictable?," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 94b08, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:45:y:2013:i:2:p:675-695. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)

or (Rebekah McClure)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.