A Model for Pricing the Italian Contemporary Art Paintings at Auction
This paper aims to model the auction prices of Italian contemporary art paintings. The contribution to the existing literature is twofold concerning both the methodological and the conceptual aspects. From the former point of view, we use the two-stages Heckit model which allows us to take into account the sample selection bias deriving from the "buying" risk, that affects transactions at auction. From the latter point of view, we have found that some sale characteristics such as auction house prestige and year of sale, are more important than the physical aspects of the paintings. Moreover, some artistic characteristics, the artist's name and their living status are also relevant. An estimation using pre-sale evaluation by experts has also been tried: this explanatory variable seems to be the main driver regarding both the probability of having an unsold painting and the auction price levels reached by sold works. Nevertheless, the hypothesis of its sufficiency is rejected and some problems related to the economic interpretation of the results arise. The whole analysis is carried out after creating a new dataset of 2817 transactions which took place at the most important auction houses between 1990 and 2006.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +39 071 220 7100
Fax: +39 071 220 7102
Web page: http://www.dises.univpm.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Chanel & Louis-André Gérard-Varlet & Victor Ginsburgh, 1996.
"The relevance of hedonic price indices: the case of paintings,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/1715, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Chanel, O. & Gerard, L.A. & Ginsburgh, V., 1992. "The Relevence of Hedonic Price Indices the Case of Paintings," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 92a19, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- Richard Agnello & Renée Pierce, 1996. "Financial returns, price determinants, and genre effects in American art investment," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 359-383, December.
- Paolo Figini & Laura Onofri, 2005. "Old Master paintings: price formation and public policy implications," Chapters, in: Law and the State, chapter 14 Edward Elgar.
- Heckman, James, 2013.
"Sample selection bias as a specification error,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
- Ginsburgh, Victor & Jeanfils, Philippe, 1995.
"Long-term comovements in international markets for paintings,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 538-548, April.
- Victor Ginsburgh & Philippe Jeanfils, 1995. "Long-term comovements in international markets for paintings," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/1717, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Ginsburgh, V. & Jeanfils, P., . "Long-term comovements in international markets for paintings," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1147, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Goetzmann, William N, 1993. "Accounting for Taste: Art and the Financial Markets over Three Centuries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1370-76, December.
- Renneboog, L.D.R. & van Houte, T., 1999.
"The Monetary Appreciation of Paintings : From Realism to Magritte,"
1999-62, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Luc Renneboog, 2002. "The monetary appreciation of paintings: from realism to Magritte," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 331-358, May.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
- Skeels, Christopher L. & Vella, Francis, 1999. "A Monte Carlo investigation of the sampling behavior of conditional moment tests in Tobit and Probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 275-294, October.
- Madeleine de la Barre & Sophie Docclo & Victor Ginsburgh, 1994. "Returns of impressionist, modern and contemporary European painters, 1962-1991," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/1723, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Chanel, O., 1994.
"Is Art Market Behavior Predictable?,"
94b08, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
- James Pesando & Pauline Shum, 1999. "The Returns to Picasso's Prints and to Traditional Financial Assets, 1977 to 1996," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 181-190, August.
- Helen Higgs & Andrew C Worthington, 2004.
"Financial returns and price determinants in the Australian art market, 1973-2003,"
School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series
184, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
- Helen Higgs & Andrew Worthington, 2005. "Financial Returns and Price Determinants in the Australian Art Market, 1973-2003," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 113-123, 06.
- Pesando, James E, 1993. "Art as an Investment: The Market for Modern Prints," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1075-89, December.
- Locatelli-Biey, Marilena & Zanola, Roberto, 2003.
"The market for Picasso prints: an hybrid model approach,"
POLIS Working Papers
34, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
- Marilena Biey & Roberto Zanola, 2005. "The Market for Picasso Prints: A Hybrid Model Approach," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 127-136, May.
- Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2002. "Art as an Investment and the Underperformance of Masterpieces," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1656-1668, December.
- Corinna Czujack, 1997. "Picasso Paintings at Auction, 1963–1994," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 229-247, September.
- Pagan, Adrian & Vella, Frank, 1989. "Diagnostic Tests for Models Based on Individual Data: A Survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S29-59, Supplemen.
- G. Candela & A. Scorcu, 1997. "A Price Index for Art Market Auctions," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 175-196, September.
- A. Collins & A. E. Scorcu & R. Zanola, 2007. "Sample Selection Bias and Time Instability of Hedonic Art Price Indexes," Working Papers 610, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Anderson, Robert C, 1974. "Paintings as an Investment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 13-26, March.
- Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2006. "A Note on Financial Risk, Return and Asset Pricing in Australian Modern and Contemporary Art," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 73-84, March.
- Richard J. Agnello, 2002. "Investment Returns and Risk for Art: Evidence from Auctions of American Paintings," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 443-463, Fall.
- Zanola, Roberto, 2007. "The Dynamics of Art Prices: The Selection Corrected Repeat-Sales Index," POLIS Working Papers 76, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
- Greene, William H, 1981. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error: Comment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 795-98, May.
- Marilena Locatelli Biey & Roberto Zanola, 1999. "Investment in Paintings: A Short-Run Price Index," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 209-219, August.
- Douglas Hodgson & Keith Vorkink, 2004. "Asset pricing theory and the valuation of Canadian paintings," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 629-655, August.
- Stein, John Picard, 1977. "The Monetary Appreciation of Paintings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 1021-35, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:316. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maurizio Mariotti)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.