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Art experts and auctions Are pre-sale estimates unbiased and fully informative?

Author

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  • Luc BAUWENS

    (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE))

  • Victor GINSBURGH

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

Abstract

Public sales art catalogues include low and high pre-sale price estimates by experts. This makes it possible to analyze whether pre-sale estimates are unbiased predictors of realized prices. Unbiasedness is tested using a sample of some 1,600 lots of English silver auctioned by Christie's and Sotheby's. Results show that estimates are slightly (but significantly) baised and that experts do not use ail the information that is available to them when they make their estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Luc BAUWENS & Victor GINSBURGH, 2000. "Art experts and auctions Are pre-sale estimates unbiased and fully informative?," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2000022, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2000022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chanel, O. & Gerard, L.A. & Ginsburgh, V., 1992. "The Relevence of Hedonic Price Indices the Case of Paintings," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 92a19, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
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    6. Olivier Chanel & Louis-André Gérard-Varet & Victor Ginsburgh, 1996. "The relevance of hedonic price indices," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 20(1), pages 1-24, March.
    7. Gourieroux, Christian & Pradel, Jacqueline, 1986. "Direct test of the rational expectation hypothesis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 265-284, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alan Beggs & Kathryn Graddy, 2008. "Failure to meet the reserve price: the impact on returns to art," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 32(4), pages 301-320, December.
    2. Victor Ginsburgh & Sheila Weyers, 2008. "Quantitative approaches to valuation in the arts, with an application to movies," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7292, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    3. Ünsal Özdilek, 2013. "Visual autocorrelation of prices," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 37(2), pages 203-223, May.
    4. Ali, Héla Hadj & Lecocq, Sébastien & Visser, Michael, 2010. "The Impact of Gurus: Parker Grades and en primeur Wine Prices," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(01), pages 22-39, March.
    5. Calin Valsan & Robert Sproule, 2006. "Hedonic Models and Pre-Auction Estimates: Abstract Art Revisited," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 26(5), pages 1-10.
    6. Orley Ashenfelter & Kathryn Graddy, 2002. "Art Auctions: A Survey of Empirical Studies," Working Papers 121, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    7. Michael Beckmann, 2004. "Art Auctions and Bidding Rings: Empirical Evidence from German Auction Data," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 28(2), pages 125-141, May.
    8. repec:eee:ecolet:v:162:y:2018:i:c:p:45-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Spaenjers, Christophe & Goetzmann, William N. & Mamonova, Elena, 2015. "The economics of aesthetics and record prices for art since 1701," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 79-94.
    10. Calin Valsan & Robert Sproule, 2008. "Reservation Prices And Pre-Auction Estimates: A Study In Abstract Art," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 10(24), pages 257-272, June.
    11. Jun-ichi Itaya & Heinrich Ursprung, 2008. "Price and Death," CESifo Working Paper Series 2213, CESifo Group Munich.
    12. Victor Ginsburgh, 2003. "Awards, Success and Aesthetic Quality in the Arts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 99-111, Spring.
    13. Stuart Kells, 2003. "Explaining The Breadth Of Expert Estimate Ranges In Auctions Of Rare Books," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 873, The University of Melbourne.
    14. Seçkin Aylin & Atukeren Erdal, 2012. "A Heckit Model of Sales Dynamics in Turkish Art Auctions: 2005-2008," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-32, May.
    15. repec:bla:scotjp:v:64:y:2017:i:5:p:483-500 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Guido Candela & Paolo Figini & Antonello Scorcu, 2004. "Price Indices for Artists – A Proposal," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 28(4), pages 285-302, November.
    17. repec:ags:aareaj:260082 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Orley Ashenfelter & Kathryn Graddy, 2003. "Auctions and the Price of Art," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 763-787, September.
    19. Lucio Picci & Antonello Scorcu, 2003. "Bidders' and Sellers' Strategies in Sequential Auctions. New Evidence about the Afternoon Effect," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(2), pages 163-178, June.
    20. Patrick Georges & Aylin Seçkin, 2012. "Auction Prices of Classical Music Manuscripts – A Hedonic Approach," Working Papers 1202E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    21. Marinelli, Nicoletta & Palomba, Giulio, 2011. "A model for pricing Italian Contemporary Art paintings at auction," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 212-224, May.
    22. Bronwyn Coate & Tim R.L. Fry, 2012. "Better off Dead? Prices Realised for Australian Paintings Sold at Auction," ACEI Working Paper Series AWP-02-2012, Association for Cultural Economics International, revised Feb 2012.
    23. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:26:y:2006:i:5:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Graddy, Kathryn & Hamilton, Jonathan, 2017. "Auction guarantees for works of art," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 303-312.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Biasedness of pre-sale estimates; not fully informative pre-sale estimates;

    JEL classification:

    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • Z1 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics

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