IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this book chapter or follow this series

A Model for Pricing the Italian Contemporary Art Paintings at Auction

  • Nicoletta Marinelli
  • Giulio Palomba

This paper aims to model the auction prices of Italian contemporary art paintings. The contribution to the existing literature is twofold concerning both the methodological and the conceptual aspects. From the former point of view, we use the two-stages Heckit model which allows us to take into account the sample selection bias deriving from the "buying" risk, that affects transactions at auction. From the latter point of view, we have found that some sale characteristics such as auction house prestige and year of sale, are more important than the physical aspects of the paintings. Moreover, some artistic characteristics, the artist's name and their living status are also relevant. An estimation using pre-sale evaluation by experts has also been tried: this explanatory variable seems to be the main driver regarding both the probability of having an unsold painting and the auction price levels reached by sold works. Nevertheless, the hypothesis of its sufficiency is rejected and some problems related to the economic interpretation of the results arise. The whole analysis is carried out after creating a new dataset of 2817 transactions which took place at the most important auction houses between 1990 and 2006.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Alcira Macías Redondo)

Download Restriction: no

in new window

This chapter was published in:
  • Ignacio Díaz-Emparanza & Petr Mariel & María Victoria Esteban (ed.), 2009. "Econometrics with gretl. Proceedings of the gretl Conference 2009," UPV/EHU Books, Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, edition 1, number 01.
  • This item is provided by Universidad del País Vasco - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales in its series EHUCHAPS with number 01-07.
    Handle: RePEc:ehu:ehucha:01-07
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Avda. Lehendakari, Aguirre, 83, 48015 Bilbao
    Phone: (94) 447 28 00
    Fax: 34946013754
    Web page:

    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information: Postal: Dpto. de Economía Aplicada III (Econometría y Estadística), Facultad de CC. Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad del País Vasco, Avda. Lehendakari Aguirre 83, 48015 Bilbao, Spain

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Chanel, O., 1994. "Is Art Market Behavior Predictable?," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 94b08, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
    2. Skeels, Christopher L. & Vella, Francis, 1999. "A Monte Carlo investigation of the sampling behavior of conditional moment tests in Tobit and Probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 275-294, October.
    3. Pesando, James E, 1993. "Art as an Investment: The Market for Modern Prints," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1075-89, December.
    4. Ginsburgh, Victor & Jeanfils, Philippe, 1995. "Long-term comovements in international markets for paintings," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 538-548, April.
    5. Helen Higgs & Andrew Worthington, 2005. "Financial Returns and Price Determinants in the Australian Art Market, 1973-2003," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 113-123, 06.
    6. James Pesando & Pauline Shum, 1999. "The Returns to Picasso's Prints and to Traditional Financial Assets, 1977 to 1996," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 181-190, August.
    7. A. Collins & A. E. Scorcu & R. Zanola, 2007. "Sample Selection Bias and Time Instability of Hedonic Art Price Indexes," Working Papers 610, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    8. Goetzmann, William N, 1993. "Accounting for Taste: Art and the Financial Markets over Three Centuries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1370-76, December.
    9. Richard Agnello & Renée Pierce, 1996. "Financial returns, price determinants, and genre effects in American art investment," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 359-383, December.
    10. Chanel, O. & Gerard, L.A. & Ginsburgh, V., 1992. "The Relevence of Hedonic Price Indices the Case of Paintings," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 92a19, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
    11. Richard J. Agnello, 2002. "Investment Returns and Risk for Art: Evidence from Auctions of American Paintings," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 443-463, Fall.
    12. Stein, John Picard, 1977. "The Monetary Appreciation of Paintings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(5), pages 1021-35, October.
    13. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2006. "A Note on Financial Risk, Return and Asset Pricing in Australian Modern and Contemporary Art," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 73-84, March.
    14. Renneboog, L.D.R. & van Houte, T., 1999. "The Monetary Appreciation of Paintings : From Realism to Magritte," Discussion Paper 1999-62, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    15. Locatelli-Biey, Marilena & Zanola, Roberto, 2003. "The market for Picasso prints: an hybrid model approach," POLIS Working Papers 34, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
    16. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
    17. Greene, William H, 1981. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error: Comment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 795-98, May.
    18. Paolo Figini & Laura Onofri, 2005. "Old Master paintings: price formation and public policy implications," Chapters, in: Law and the State, chapter 14 Edward Elgar.
    19. Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2002. "Art as an Investment and the Underperformance of Masterpieces," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1656-1668, December.
    20. Zanola, Roberto, 2007. "The Dynamics of Art Prices: The Selection Corrected Repeat-Sales Index," POLIS Working Papers 76, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
    21. Anderson, Robert C, 1974. "Paintings as an Investment," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 13-26, March.
    22. Madeleine de la Barre & Sophie Docclo & Victor Ginsburgh, 1994. "Returns of impressionist, modern and contemporary European painters, 1962-1991," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/1723, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    23. Douglas Hodgson & Keith Vorkink, 2004. "Asset pricing theory and the valuation of Canadian paintings," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(3), pages 629-655, August.
    24. Marilena Locatelli Biey & Roberto Zanola, 1999. "Investment in Paintings: A Short-Run Price Index," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 209-219, August.
    25. Corinna Czujack, 1997. "Picasso Paintings at Auction, 1963–1994," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 229-247, September.
    26. G. Candela & A. Scorcu, 1997. "A Price Index for Art Market Auctions," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 175-196, September.
    27. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    28. Pagan, Adrian & Vella, Frank, 1989. "Diagnostic Tests for Models Based on Individual Data: A Survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S29-59, Supplemen.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehu:ehucha:01-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alcira Macías Redondo)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.