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Sticky prices or economically-linked economies: The case of forecasting the Chinese stock market

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  • Jordan, Steven J.
  • Vivian, Andrew
  • Wohar, Mark E.

Abstract

We explore whether economic links via trade affect aggregate Chinese stock market returns. We find that market return indices from countries that China net imports from can forecast the Chinese aggregate market return at the weekly time horizon. The stock returns of countries that China net exports to have no consistently significant OOS predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "Sticky prices or economically-linked economies: The case of forecasting the Chinese stock market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 95-109.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:41:y:2014:i:c:p:95-109
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.11.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Yangshu & Tu, Jun, 2017. "International volatility risk and Chinese stock return predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 183-203.
    2. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Forecasting market returns: bagging or combining?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Do cay and cayMS predict stock and housing returns? Evidence from a nonparametric causality test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 269-279.
    4. Sousa, Ricardo M. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Predicting asset returns in the BRICS: The role of macroeconomic and fundamental predictors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-143.
    5. repec:spr:fininn:v:3:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40854-017-0053-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Li, Hongyi & Xu, Weidong, 2016. "Chinese stock market volatility and the role of U.S. economic variables," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 70-83.
    7. Rocha Armada, Manuel J. & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2015. "Consumption growth, preference for smoothing, changes in expectations and risk premium," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 80-97.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Forecast; Import; Export; Macroeconomics; Forecast combinations;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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