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Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries

Author

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  • Haavio, Markus
  • Mendicino, Caterina
  • Punzi, Maria Teresa

Abstract

This article empirically studies the linkages between financial variable downturns and economic recessions. We present evidence that real asset prices tend to lead real cycles, while loan-to-GDP and loan-to-deposit ratios lag them. Using a probit analysis, we document that downturns in real asset prices, particularly real house prices, are useful leading indicators of economic recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Haavio, Markus & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013. "Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 35/2013, Bank of Finland.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:rdp2013_035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macro-financial linkages; turning point analysis; probit models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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