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Superkurtosis

Author

Listed:
  • Stavros Degiannakis

    (Bank of Greece)

  • George Filis

    (University of Patras)

  • Grigorios Siourounis

    (Panteion University of Social and Political Science, and Brown University)

  • Lorenzo Trapani

    (University of Nottingham)

Abstract

Very little is known on how traditional risk metrics behave under intraday trading. We fill this void by examining the finiteness of the returns’ moments and assessing the impact of their infinity in a risk management framework. We show that when intraday trading is considered, assuming finite higher order moments, potential losses are materially larger than what the theory predicts, and they increase exponentially as the trading frequency increases - a phenomenon we call superkurtosis. Hence, the use of the current risk management techniques under intraday trading impose threats to the stability of financial markets, given that capital ratios may be severely underestimated.

Suggested Citation

  • Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Grigorios Siourounis & Lorenzo Trapani, 2023. "Superkurtosis," Working Papers 318, Bank of Greece.
    • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:318
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bankofgreece.gr/Publications/Paper2023318.pdf
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    Other versions of this item:

    • Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Siourounis, Grigorios & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2019. "Superkurtosis," MPRA Paper 96563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Siourounis, Grigorios & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2019. "Superkurtosis," MPRA Paper 94473, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Trapani, Lorenzo, 2016. "Testing for (in)finite moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 57-68.
    2. Igor Fedotenkov, 2013. "A bootstrap method to test for the existence of finite moments," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 315-322, June.
    3. Horváth, Lajos & Trapani, Lorenzo, 2016. "Statistical inference in a random coefficient panel model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 54-75.
    4. Andrei Kirilenko & Albert S. Kyle & Mehrdad Samadi & Tugkan Tuzun, 2017. "The Flash Crash: High-Frequency Trading in an Electronic Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(3), pages 967-998, June.
    5. Andrei A. Kirilenko & Andrew W. Lo, 2013. "Moore's Law versus Murphy's Law: Algorithmic Trading and Its Discontents," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(2), pages 51-72, Spring.
    6. Engle, Robert F. & Manganelli, Simone, 2001. "Value at risk models in finance," Working Paper Series 75, European Central Bank.
    7. Beddington, John & Furse, Clara & Bond, Philip & Cliff, Dave & Goodhart, Charles & Houstoun, Kevin & Linton, Oliver & Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2012. "Foresight: the future of computer trading in financial markets: final project report," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62157, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nowcasting; forecasting; GDP; disaggregation; factors; multilayer; mixed frequency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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