Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany: An Assessment of Accuracy and Dispersion
Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2002 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are unbiased and weakly, but not strongly efficient. Besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality are found among forecasters. We argue that is not always advisable to listen to the majority of forecast-ers. The dispersion of forecasts correlates positively with the volatility of macroeconomic variables. This suggests that forecasters do not behave predominately strategic, but share no common belief on the adequate model of the economy.
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- Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August.
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