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A Kernel Technique for Forecasting the Variance-Covariance Matrix

  • Ralf Becker

    ()

    (University of Manchester)

  • Adam Clements

    ()

    (QUT)

  • Robert O'Neill

    (University of Manchester)

The forecasting of variance-covariance matrices is an important issue. In recent years an increasing body of literature has focused on multivariate models to forecast this quantity. This paper develops a nonparametric technique for generating multivariate volatility forecasts from a weighted average of historical volatility and a broader set of macroeconomic variables. As opposed to traditional techniques where the weights solely decay as a function of time, this approach employs a kernel weighting scheme where historical periods exhibiting the most similar conditions to the time at which the forecast if formed attract the greatest weight. It is found that the proposed method leads to superior forecasts, with macroeconomic information playing an important role.

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File URL: http://www.ncer.edu.au/papers/documents/WPNo66.pdf
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Paper provided by National Centre for Econometric Research in its series NCER Working Paper Series with number 66.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 28 Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2010_13
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Web page: http://www.ncer.edu.au

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  1. Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Francesco Violante, 2010. "On the Forecasting Accuracy of Multivariate GARCH Models," Cahiers de recherche 1021, CIRPEE.
  2. Becker Ralf & Clements Adam E & Hurn Stan, 2011. "Semi-Parametric Forecasting of Realized Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, May.
  3. Laurent, Sébastien & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Violante, Francesco, 2013. "On loss functions and ranking forecasting performances of multivariate volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 1-10.
  4. L.A. Sjaastad & F. Scacciavillani, 1995. "The Price of Gold and the Exchange Rates," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 95-14, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  5. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
  6. Adrian R. Pagan & Kirill A. Sossounov, 2003. "A simple framework for analysing bull and bear markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 23-46.
  7. Adam Clements & Mark Doolan & Stan Hurn & Ralf Becker, 2009. "Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts," NCER Working Paper Series 41, National Centre for Econometric Research, revised 25 Nov 2009.
  8. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355, March.
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