IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedawp/2002-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stock market uncertainty and the relation between stock and bond returns

Author

Listed:
  • Chris Stivers
  • Licheng Sun

Abstract

The authors examine how the co-movement between daily stock and Treasury bond returns varies with stock market uncertainty. They use the lagged implied volatility from equity index options to provide an objective, observable, and dynamic measure of stock market uncertainty. The authors find that stock and bond returns tend to move substantially together during periods of lower stock market uncertainty. However, stock and bond returns tend to exhibit little relation or even a negative relation during periods of high stock market uncertainty. The authors’ findings have implications for understanding joint cross-market price formation. Further, their findings imply that diversification benefits increase for portfolios of stocks and bonds during periods of high stock market uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Stivers & Licheng Sun, 2002. "Stock market uncertainty and the relation between stock and bond returns," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2002-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0203a.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    2. Jeff Fleming & Barbara Ostdiek & Robert E. Whaley, 1995. "Predicting stock market volatility: A new measure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 265-302, May.
    3. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, pages 5-33.
    4. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    5. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    6. Shiller, Robert J. & Beltratti, Andrea E., 1992. "Stock prices and bond yields : Can their comovements be explained in terms of present value models?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 25-46.
    7. Hausman, J. A. & Newey, W. K. & Powell, J. L., 1995. "Nonlinear errors in variables Estimation of some Engel curves," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 205-233.
    8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    9. Michael J. Fleming, 1997. "The round-the-clock market for U.S. Treasury securities," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 9-32.
    10. Francis X. Diebold & Joon-Haeng Lee & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 1993. "Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities," Working Papers 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    11. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
    12. John T. Scruggs, 1998. "Resolving the Puzzling Intertemporal Relation between the Market Risk Premium and Conditional Market Variance: A Two-Factor Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 575-603, April.
    13. Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, February.
    14. Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-593, Sept.-Oct.
    15. Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1998. "Information and volatility linkages in the stock, bond, and money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 111-137, July.
    16. Barsky, Robert B, 1989. "Why Don't the Prices of Stocks and Bonds Move Together?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1132-1145.
    17. Haugen, Robert A & Talmor, Eli & Torous, Walter N, 1991. " The Effect of Volatility Changes on the Level of Stock Prices and Subsequent Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 985-1007, July.
    18. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia, 2003. "Delta-Hedged Gains and the Negative Market Volatility Risk Premium," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, pages 527-566.
    19. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Forecasting S&P 100 volatility: the incremental information content of implied volatilities and high-frequency index returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 5-26, November.
    20. Whitelaw, Robert F, 2000. "Stock Market Risk and Return: An Equilibrium Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, pages 521-547.
    21. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
    22. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Tom Smith & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Regime Shifts and Bond Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-010, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    23. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    24. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    25. Joshua D. Coval, 2001. "Expected Option Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 983-1009, June.
    26. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, pages 5-33.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Felipe, Angie & Guillen, Montserrat & Nielsen, Jens Perch, 2001. "Longevity studies based on kernel hazard estimation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, pages 191-204.
    2. Belter, Klaus & Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2005. "A new daily dividend-adjusted index for the Danish stock market, 1985-2002: construction, statistical properties, and return predictability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 53-70.
    3. Vellekoop, M.H. & Vd Kamp, A.A. & Post, B.A., 2006. "Pricing and hedging guaranteed returns on mix funds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 585-598, June.
    4. Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2011. "Do global risk perceptions influence world oil prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 515-524, May.
    5. Vo Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2016. "Testing Macro Models by Indirect Inference: A Survey for Users," Open Economies Review, Springer, pages 1-38.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market ; Stocks ; Bonds;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2002-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Elaine Clokey). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbatus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.