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A Cholesky-MIDAS model for predicting stock portfolio volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Ralf Becker

    (University of Manchester)

  • Adam Clements

    (QUT)

  • Robert O'Neill

    (University of Manchester)

Abstract

This paper presents a simple forecasting technique for variance covariance matrices. It relies significantly on the contribution of Chiriac and Voev (2010) who propose to forecast elements of the Cholesky decomposition which recombine to form a positive definite forecast for the variance covariance matrix. The method proposed here combines this methodology with advances made in the MIDAS literature to produce a forecasting methodology that is flexible, scales easily with the size of the portfolio and produces superior forecasts in simulation experiments and an empirical application.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralf Becker & Adam Clements & Robert O'Neill, 2010. "A Cholesky-MIDAS model for predicting stock portfolio volatility," NCER Working Paper Series 60, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2010_07
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    File URL: http://www.ncer.edu.au/papers/documents/WPNo60.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurent, Sébastien & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Violante, Francesco, 2013. "On loss functions and ranking forecasting performances of multivariate volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 1-10.
    2. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    3. Michelle T. Armesto & Rubén Hernández-Murillo & Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger, 2007. "Identifying asymmetry in the language of the Beige Book: a mixed data sampling approach," Working Papers 2007-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Uwe Dulleck & Rudolf Kerschbamer & Matthias Sutter, 2009. "The Economics of Credence Goods: On the Role of Liability, Verifiability, Reputation and Competition," Working Papers 2009-03, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cholesky; Midas; volatility forecasts;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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