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Forecasting House Prices in Germany

  • Philipp an de Meulen
  • Martin Micheli

    ()

  • Torsten Schmidt

In the academic debate there is a broad consensus that house price fluctuations have a substantial impact on financial stability and real economic activity. Therefore, it is important to have timely information on actual and expected house price developments. The aim of this paper is to measure the latest price movements in different real estate markets in Germany and forecast near-term price developments. Therefore we construct hedonic house price indices based on real estate advertisements on the internet platform ImmobilienScout24. Then, starting with a naive AR(p) model as a benchmark, we investigate whether VAR and ARDL models using additional macroeconomic information can improve the forecasting performance as measured by the mean squared forecast error (MSFE). While these models reduce the forecast error only slightly, forecast combination approaches enhance the predictive power considerably..

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Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0294.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0294
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  1. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Forecasting the US Real House Price Index: Structural and Non-Structural Models with and without Fundamentals," Working Papers 200927, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  2. Gattini, Luca & Hiebert, Paul, 2010. "Forecasting and assessing Euro area house prices through the lens of key fundamentals," Working Paper Series 1249, European Central Bank.
  3. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132.
  4. an de Meulen, Philipp & Bauer, Thomas K. & Micheli, Martin & Schmidt, Torsten & Kiefer, Michael & Wilke, Lars-Holger & Feuerschütte, Sven, 2011. "Ein hedonischer Immobilienpreisindex auf Basis von Internetdaten 2007-2011," RWI Projektberichte, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), number 69972.
  5. Aiolfi, Marco & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Persistence in forecasting performance and conditional combination strategies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 31-53.
  6. Teekens, R & Koerts, J, 1972. "Some Statistical Implications of the Log Transformation of Multiplicative Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(5), pages 793-819, September.
  7. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
  8. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
  9. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1, May/June.
  10. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2007. "Forecasting real housing price growth in the Eighth District states," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 33-42.
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