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Modelling structural change: the case of New Zealand

This paper documents the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's current approach to dealing with structural change, an important feature of New Zealand's recent macroeconomic history after the profound economic reforms undergone in the past twenty years. Traditional estimated macroeconomic models of New Zealand have broken down over time, which led to the mid 1990's creation of the Forecasting and Policy System (FPS). In this paper, we analyse why the FPS has proved more robust to structural change and discuss steps we are taking to develop carefully chosen alternative models to complement FPS. Because those alternative models are clearly subject to structural change as well, in developing them we have looked hard at estimation approaches that allow for structural instability. In this paper, we document the results of subjecting some key nominal relationships to stability tests and explicit modelling of structural change. We find preliminary evidence that New Zealand's inflation targeting regime has caused structural shifts in pricing behaviour and expectations formation.

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File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/discussion_papers/2003/dp03_03.pdf
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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2003/03.

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Length: 27p
Date of creation: Apr 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2003/03
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Web page: http://www.rbnz.govt.nzEmail:


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  1. Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  2. Aaron Drew & Ben Hunt, 1998. "The Forecasting and Policy System: preparing economic projections," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2000-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Brooks, Ray & Gibbs, Darren, 1994. "A model of the New Zealand economy Reserve Bank Model XII," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 5-86, January.
  5. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 0082, European Central Bank.
  7. Peter van Els & Alberto Locarno & Julian Morgan & Jean-Pierre Villetelle, 2001. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: what do aggregate and national structural models tell us?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 433, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Barassi, Marco R. & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hall, Stephen G., 2005. "Interest rate linkages: a Kalman filter approach to detecting structural change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-284, March.
  9. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. W A Razzak, 2002. "Monetary policy and forecasting inflation with and without the output gap," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2002/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  11. Garratt, Anthony & Hall, Stephen G., 1997. "E-equilibria and adaptive expectations: Output and inflation in the LBS model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1149-1171, June.
  12. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G., 1996. "Modelling economies subject to structural change: The case of Germany," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 545-559, October.
  13. Joanne Archibald & Leni Hunter, 2001. "What is the neutral real interest rate, and how can we use it?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, September.
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