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A Brief History of Hyperinflation in Argentina

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  • Emilio Ocampo

Abstract

A fiscal deficit of 8.5% of GDP, limited access to credit locally and internationally, country risk premiums at default levels and money supply growing at 80% annually, have led some analysts to predict that Argentina might be heading into a “3-digit modern hyperinflation.” Although this opinion is not widely held, the consensus inflation forecast for 2021 is 47%, a level significantly below any definition of hyperinflation but high by global standards (above the 98th percentile). Even more worrisome is the fact that over the last decade inflation has shown a persistent upward trend and since January 2019 has averaged 45%. Given all of the above, it is worthwhile investigating when Argentina experienced hyperinflation and why. This paper attempts to answer the first part of this question. According to a widely accepted view there was only one hyperinflationary episode between 1989 and 1990. This paper argues that Argentina experienced four hyperinflationary episodes that were part of a long-term cycle that started in 1945.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilio Ocampo, 2021. "A Brief History of Hyperinflation in Argentina," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 787, Universidad del CEMA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:787
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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