The Cyclical Behaviour of Shadow and Regular Employment
Using the Hodrick-Prescott filter, this paper examines the cyclical properties of the Italian labour market. Its main contribution is the empirical analysis of three different labour inputs - regular employees, regular self-employed and underground workers. Results from VAR models support the widespread view that the shadow employment functions as an improper tool for increasing the flexibility of the labour market. While the contemporaneous correlation between shadow labour and output is significant, as time passes their association looses momentum. The opposite is found for regular employees, which show significant positive correlations only with lagged output gaps. Somewhat puzzling, self- employment seems to be the less sensitive to the course of business cycles. The skewness of input distributions suggests that hiring employees is easier than firing them, while this can not be said for the other two labour gaps. Disaggregate data tell different stories. For instance, in the manufacturing sector the hidden employment is not correlated with the output, while in the trade sector the acyclical input turns out to be the recorded employees. In the transport industry, where no labour input follow the cycle, regular employees are more fired than hired.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
- Giuseppe Bertola & Pietro Garibaldi, 2003. "The Structure and History of Italian Unemployment," CESifo Working Paper Series 907, CESifo Group Munich.
- Ihrig, Jane & Moe, Karine S., 2004. "Lurking in the shadows: the informal sector and government policy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 541-557, April.
- Tito Boeri & Pietro Garibaldi, .
"Shadow Activity and Unemployment in a Depressed Labor Market,"
177, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Boeri, Tito & Garibaldi, Pietro, 2002. "Shadow Activity and Unemployment in a Depressed Labour Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 3433, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/1888 is not listed on IDEAS
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999.
"The Band pass filter,"
9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Francesco Busato & Bruno Chiarini, 2004. "Market and underground activities in a two-sector dynamic equilibrium model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 23(4), pages 831-861, May.
- David Giles, 1997. "Causality between the measured and underground economies in New Zealand," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 63-67.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995.
"Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Maurizio Bovi, 2005.
"The Dark, and Independent, Side of the Italian Labour Market,"
Labor and Demography
- Maurizio Bovi, 2005. "The Dark, and Independent, Side of the Italian Labour Market," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 19(4), pages 721-748, December.
- Ravn, Morten O & Uhlig, Harald, 2001.
"On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997. "On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations," Discussion Paper 1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CESifo Working Paper Series 479, CESifo Group Munich.
- Fugazza, Marco & Jacques, Jean-Francois, 2004. "Labor market institutions, taxation and the underground economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1-2), pages 395-418, January.
- Jay Pil Choi & Marcel Thum, 2002.
"Corruption and the Shadow Economy,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
633, CESifo Group Munich.
- Giuseppe Nicoletti & Stefano Scarpetta & Olivier Boylaud, 2000. "Summary Indicators of Product Market Regulation with an Extension to Employment Protection Legislation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 226, OECD Publishing.
- Carillo, Maria Rosaria & Pugno, Maurizio, 2004. "The underground economy and underdevelopment," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 257-279, September.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpla:0507011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.