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On the Rationality of the General Public

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  • GEBHARD KIRCHGÄSSNER

Abstract

Using Allensbach survey data about how people look forward to the coming year, we construct true ex post-forecasts and compare them with the forecasts produced by the German Council of Economic Experts and by the Economic Research Institutes. Then, we perform rationality tests for these forecast series. The Allensbach forecasts outperform the professional forecasts in many respects. Finally, we ask whether information included in short-term interest rates is reflected in the different forecasts. We show that the Allensbach forecasts seem to fully take into account this information, while the professional forecasts do not. Thus, when making expectations, the German general public seems to consider more information than the professional forecasters.

Suggested Citation

  • Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2005. "On the Rationality of the General Public," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-13, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2005:2005-13
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    1. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 3-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gebhardt Kirschgässner & Marcel Savioz, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(4), pages 339-365, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Birger Antholz, 2006. "Geschichte der quantitativen Konjunkturprognose-Evaluation in Deutschland," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(2), pages 12-33.

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    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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