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Investment strategies used as spectroscopy of financial markets reveal new stylized facts

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  • Wei-Xing ZHOU

    (East China University of Science and Technology)

  • Guo-Hua MU

    (East China University of Science and Technology)

  • Wei CHEN

    (Shenzhen Stock Exchange)

  • Didier SORNETTE

    (ETH Zurich and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

We propose a new set of stylized facts quantifying the structure of financial markets. The key idea is to study the combined structure of both investment strategies and prices in order to open a qualitatively new level of understanding of financial and economic markets. We study the detailed order flow on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China for the whole year of 2003. This enormous dataset allows us to compare (i) a closed national market (A-shares) with an international market (B-shares), (ii) individuals and institutions and (iii) real traders to random strategies with respect to timing that share otherwise all other characteristics. We find in general that more trading results in smaller net return due to trading frictions, with the exception that the net return is independent of the trading frequency for A-share individual traders. We unveiled quantitative power laws with non-trivial exponents, that quantify the deterioration of performance with frequency and with holding period of the strategies used by traders. Random strategies are found to perform much better than real ones, both for winners and losers. Surprising large arbitrage opportunities exist, especially when using zero-intelligence strategies. This is a diagnostic of possible inefficiencies of these financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei-Xing ZHOU & Guo-Hua MU & Wei CHEN & Didier SORNETTE, 2011. "Investment strategies used as spectroscopy of financial markets reveal new stylized facts," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 11-30, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1130
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    Cited by:

    1. J. Wiesinger & D. Sornette & J. Satinover, 2013. "Reverse Engineering Financial Markets with Majority and Minority Games Using Genetic Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 475-492, April.
    2. Yan Li & Bo Zheng & Ting-Ting Chen & Xiong-Fei Jiang, 2017. "Fluctuation-driven price dynamics and investment strategies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(12), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Mario A Bertella & Felipe R Pires & Henio H A Rego & Jonathas N Silva & Irena Vodenska & H Eugene Stanley, 2017. "Confidence and self-attribution bias in an artificial stock market," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, February.
    4. Jun-jie Chen & Bo Zheng & Lei Tan, 2014. "Agent-based model with asymmetric trading and herding for complex financial systems," Papers 1407.5258, arXiv.org.
    5. Lucas Fievet & Didier Sornette, 2018. "Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Jun-Jie Chen & Bo Zheng & Lei Tan, 2013. "Agent-Based Model with Asymmetric Trading and Herding for Complex Financial Systems," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-11, November.
    7. Kevin Primicerio & Damien Challet, 2018. "Large large-trader activity weakens the long memory of limit order markets," Papers 1803.08390, arXiv.org.

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    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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