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Using confidence indicators for the assessment of the cyclical position of the economy

Author

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  • Olivér Miklós Rácz

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

Abstract

In an inflation targeting regime, the best possible knowledge of demand-side inflationary pressure is of priority importance for monetary policy. In applied macroeconomic models, this is traditionally represented by the actual position of the cyclical component of GDP (the output gap). This study aims at defining a new output gap indicator, which, as opposed to the traditionally employed methods, also relies on direct information concerning the actual utilisation of economic resources. Exploiting such information substantially improves the real-time stability of the output gap estimate. The output gap indicator generated by my method (resource utilisation gap) has convincing predictive power and therefore gives a valid indication of the demand-side inflationary pressure in the real economy. Taking the above into account, the method described below will become a useful additional tool to support decision-making in monetary policy in Hungary.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivér Miklós Rácz, 2012. "Using confidence indicators for the assessment of the cyclical position of the economy," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 7(2), pages 41-46, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:bullet:v:7:y:2012:i:1:p:41-46
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/racz.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
    2. Cecília Hornok & Zoltán M. Jakab & Gábor P. Kiss, 2008. "‘Through a glass darkly’: Fiscal expansion and macro-economic developments, 2001–2006," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 3(1), pages 6-13, April.
    3. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    output-gap; monetary policy; survey indicators; principal component analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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