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Accounting for Unobserved Heterogeneity in Discrete-time, Discrete-choice Dynamic Microsimulation Models. An application to Labor Supply and Household Formation in Italy

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  • Ambra Poggi
  • Matteo Richiardi

Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of unobserved heterogeneity in discrete-time, discrete-choice microsimulation models. We compare the predictions coming from simple pooled probit estimates with those obtained using random effect dynamic probit models, in a dynamic microsimulation of household formation and labor supply in Italy. We show that failing to account for unobserved heterogeneity has important quantitative consequences, which are often neglected in empirical microsimulation work.

Suggested Citation

  • Ambra Poggi & Matteo Richiardi, 2012. "Accounting for Unobserved Heterogeneity in Discrete-time, Discrete-choice Dynamic Microsimulation Models. An application to Labor Supply and Household Formation in Italy," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 117, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:cca:wplabo:117
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    File URL: http://www.laboratoriorevelli.it/_pdf/wp117.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Concetta Rondinelli & Roberta Zizza, 2010. "(Non)persistent effects of fertility on female labour supply," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 783, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. Hahn, Jinyong, 1999. "How informative is the initial condition in the dynamic panel model with fixed effects?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 309-326, December.
    4. Aaberge, Rolf & Dagsvik, John K & Strom, Steinar, 1995. " Labor Supply Responses and Welfare Effects of Tax Reforms," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(4), pages 635-659, December.
    5. Massimiliano Bratti & Emilia Del Bono & Daniela Vuri, 2005. "New Mothers' Labour Force Participation in Italy: The Role of Job Characteristics," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 19(s1), pages 79-121, December.
    6. Carro, Jesus M., 2007. "Estimating dynamic panel data discrete choice models with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 503-528, October.
    7. Piero Casadio & Martina Lo Conte & Andrea Neri, 2008. "Balancing work and family in Italy: New mothers� employment decisions after childbirth," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 684, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    9. Honore, Bo E., 1993. "Orthogonality conditions for Tobit models with fixed effects and lagged dependent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-2), pages 35-61, September.
    10. Pacifico, Daniele, 2009. "Modelling Unobserved Heterogeneity in Discrete Choice Models of Labour Supply," MPRA Paper 19030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Anxo, Dominique & Flood, Lennart & Mencarini, Letizia & Pailhé, Ariane & Solaz, Anne & Tanturri, Maria Letizia, 2007. "Time Allocation between Work and Family over the Life-Cycle: A Comparative Gender Analysis of Italy, France, Sweden and the United States," IZA Discussion Papers 3193, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    12. Yatchew, Adonis & Griliches, Zvi, 1985. "Specification Error in Probit Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 134-139, February.
    13. Stefan Hoderlein & Enno Mammen & Kyusang Yu, 2011. "Non‐parametric models in binary choice fixed effects panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(3), pages 351-367, October.
    14. Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic microsimulation; unobserved heterogeneity; female labor force participation;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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