Early-warning tools to forecast general government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal indicators
In this paper I evaluate the usefulness of a set of fiscal indicators as early-warning-signal tools for annual General Government Net Lending developments for some EMU countries (Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, The Netherlands, Ireland, Austria, Finland) and an EMU aggregate. The indicators are mainly based on monthly and quarterly public accounts’ figures. I illustrate how the dynamics of the indicators show a remarkable performance when anticipating general government accounts’ movements, both in qualitative and in quantitative terms. JEL Classification: C53, E6, H6
|Date of creation:||Jun 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- MOULIN, Laurent & SALTO, Matteo & SILVESTRINI, Andrea & VEREDAS, David, 2004.
"Using intra annual information to forecast the annual state deficits : the case of France,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2004048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Laurent Moulin & Matteo Sala & Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008. "Using intra annual information to forecast the annual state deficit. The case of France," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136217, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999.
"Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2206, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2001. "Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages S20-S36.
- Artis, M. & Marcellino, M., 1999. "Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Economics Working Papers eco99/22, European University Institute.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Ana Lamo, 2004.
"Short-term monitoring of fiscal policy discipline,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 247-265.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005.
"In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?," Working Paper Series 0195, European Central Bank.
- Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1989. "A composite approach to forecasting state government revenues: Case study of the Idaho sales tax," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 373-380.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20050497. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.