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Scenarios Of Economic Development In Romania – Medium To Long-Term Forecasting Models

Author

Listed:
  • Albu, Lucian Liviu

    () (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy, Bucharest)

  • Roudoi, Andrei

    () (Global Insight (DRI-WEFA), Washington, DC, USA)

Abstract

In order to obtain plausible scenarios of economic development in Romania up to 2010-2015 horizon, the authors use a mix of forecasting models, like „medium-term” ones and „long-run” models. In this respect three alternative models are used, a sustainability function model (for public debt and fiscal deficits), a simple econometric model based on a production function with FDI and exports included as inputs and a standard Cobb-Douglas model.

Suggested Citation

  • Albu, Lucian Liviu & Roudoi, Andrei, 2003. "Scenarios Of Economic Development In Romania – Medium To Long-Term Forecasting Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(5), pages 64-77, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2003:i:5:p:64-77
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    3. Croitoru, Lucian & Tarhoaca, Cornel, 2003. "The Romanian Growth Potential – A Cge Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 7-22, December.
    4. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    5. Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2003. "Estimating contribution of factors to long-term growth in Romania," MPRA Paper 14729, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; sustainability function; production function; economic growth;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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