Scenarios of economic development in Romania - medium to long-term forecasting models
In order to obtain plausible scenarios of economic development in Romania up to the 2015 horizon, we used a mix of forecasting models, from ones classified as “medium-term” to those covering longer forecasting periods. Based on the analysis of the economic transition period we mainly used three models: a) A sustainability function model (public debt and fiscal deficits); b) A simple econometric model, based on a production function, in which FDI and exports are introduced as inputs in addition to labour and domestic capital (also developed as a quarterly model); c) A standard Cobb-Douglas model (also used in the case of the main economic sectors). In this paper we are synthetically presenting the basic equations of the models, and also their main simulation outputs.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting 5.4(2003): pp. 64-77|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stanley Fischer, 1993.
"The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- V N Balasubramanyam & M Salisu & David Sapsford., .
"Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries,"
ec18/94, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
- Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
- Dobrescu, Emilian, 1996. "Macromodels of the Romanian transition Economy," MPRA Paper 35810, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Barro, Robert J, 1991.
"Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
- Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Croitoru, Lucian & Tarhoaca, Cornel, 2003. "The Romanian Growth Potential – A Cge Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 7-22, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13588. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.