IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Proyección de precios de exportación utilizando tipos de cambio: Caso peruano


  • Ferreyra, Jesús

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

  • Vásquez, José

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)


La proyección de los términos de intercambio es un insumo relevante para el diseño de políticas macroeconómicas y es de vital importancia en países como Perú, cuya economía es pequeña y exportadora principalmente de materias primas. En el presente documento se aplica la metodología utilizada por Chen, Rogoff y Rossi (2009) para predecir la variación de los precios de exportación de Perú utilizando las variaciones de un índice de tipos de cambio de países exportadores de materias primas. Los resultados muestran que los tipos de cambio tienen un elevado poder predictivo de los precios de exportación del Perú, incluso mayor al de otros modelos ampliamente utilizados como los procesos autorregresivos o paseos aleatorios.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferreyra, Jesús & Vásquez, José, 2012. "Proyección de precios de exportación utilizando tipos de cambio: Caso peruano," Working Papers 2012-008, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2012-008

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Application/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    Tipo de cambio; precios de los commodities; proyecciones; random walk;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • Y - Miscellaneous Categories
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2012-008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Research Unit). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.