Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit
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Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1287/inte.1080.0383
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Other versions of this item:
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Soon, Willie, 2007. "Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit," MPRA Paper 6317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
References listed on IDEAS
- JS Armstrong, 2004. "The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting," General Economics and Teaching 0412009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Schnaars, Steven P. & Bavuso, R. Joseph, 1986. "Extrapolation models on very short-term forecasts," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-36, February.
- Kesten C. Green & J. Scott Armstrong, 2007.
"Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists Versus Scientific Forecasts,"
Energy & Environment, , vol. 18(7), pages 997-1021, December.
- Green, Kesten C. & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts," MPRA Paper 4361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Jones, Randall J. & Wright, Malcolm, 2008. "Predicting elections from politicians’ faces," MPRA Paper 9150, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Robert Fildes & Paul Goodwin, 2007. "Against Your Better Judgment? How Organizations Can Improve Their Use of Management Judgment in Forecasting," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 37(6), pages 570-576, December.
Citations
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Cited by:
- Green, Kesten C & Armstrong, J Scott & Soon, Willie, 2008. "Benchmark forecasts for climate change," MPRA Paper 12163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Steven C. Amstrup & Hal Caswell & Eric DeWeaver & Ian Stirling & David C. Douglas & Bruce G. Marcot & Christine M. Hunter, 2009. "Rebuttal of “Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit”," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 39(4), pages 353-369, August.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015.
"Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative,"
Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.
- Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2014. "Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative," MPRA Paper 53579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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More about this item
Keywords
adaptation; bias; climate change; decision making; endangered species; expert opinion; extinction; evaluation; evidence-based principles; expert judgment; forecasting methods; global warming; habitat loss; mathematical models; scientific method; sea ice;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- H0 - Public Economics - - General
- C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
- C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
- H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
- C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
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