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Estimation précoce de la croissance. De la régression LARS au modèle à facteurs


  • Françoise Charpin


In this paper, nowcasts are provided by a factor model, where factors are extracted from a small number of monthly series, selected using the LARS algorithm (Least Angle Regression). We follow the work of Bai and Ng (2008) which contrasts strongly with the traditional factor model based on a large information set. They recommend selecting only targeted predictors, i.e. the most informative series to forecast growth. A pseudo real time analysis is carried out to estimate French growth over the period 2001-2007. JEL Classification: C22, C53.

Suggested Citation

  • Françoise Charpin, 2009. "Estimation précoce de la croissance. De la régression LARS au modèle à facteurs," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 31-48.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_108_0031

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Knetter, Michael M, 1989. "Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 198-210, March.
    2. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?," IESE Research Papers D/475, IESE Business School.
    3. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    4. Guillaume Gaulier & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Isabelle Méjean, 2008. "Exchange-rate pass-through at the product level," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(2), pages 425-449, May.
    5. Salvador Gil-Pareja, 2000. "Exchange rates and European countries’ export prices: An empirical test for asymmetries in pricing to market behavior," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 136(1), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Froot, Kenneth A & Klemperer, Paul D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 637-654, September.
    7. Roberto Basile & Sergio de Nardis & Alessandro Girardi, 2009. "Pricing to market of Italian exporting firms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(12), pages 1543-1562.
    8. Guillaume Gaulier & Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Isabelle Méjean, 2006. "Structural Determinants of the Exchange-Rate Pass-Through," Working Papers 2006-03, CEPII research center.
    9. Asplund, Marcus & Eriksson, Rickard & Strand, Niklas, 2001. "Price Discrimination in Oligopoly: Evidence from Swedish Newspapers," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 468, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Jan 2007.
    10. Goldberg, Pinelopi Koujianou, 1995. "Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets: The Case of the U.S. Automobile Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 891-951, July.
    11. Feenstra, Robert C. & Gagnon, Joseph E. & Knetter, Michael M., 1996. "Market share and exchange rate pass-through in world automobile trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 187-207, February.
    12. Martin Falk & Rahel Falk, 2000. "Pricing to Market of German Exporters: Evidence from Panel Data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 21-46, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Françoise Charpin, 2011. "Réévaluation des modèles d’estimation précoce de la croissance," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompq, Sciences Po.

    More about this item


    forecasting; factor model; targeted predictors;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods


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