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Réévaluation des modèles d’estimation précoce de la croissance

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  • Françoise Charpin

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

Abstract

In the number 108 of the OFCE review, nowcasting factor models of French growth were proposed and assessed in pseudo real time over the period 2001-2007. The financial crisis has reduced their accuracy. The new basis of the French quarterly accounts published mid-may 2011 modifies also the results noticeably because it concerns GDP growth over the whole estimation period. Thus, it is the opportunity to reassess these models presented in Charpin (2009). It is also the occasion to confront them to other models by comparing their performance in pseudo real time over the period 2001 Q1 – 2011 Q1.

Suggested Citation

  • Françoise Charpin, 2011. "Réévaluation des modèles d’estimation précoce de la croissance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03461522, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03461522
    DOI: 10.3917/reof.118.0129
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03461522
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Françoise Charpin, 2009. "Estimation précoce de la croissance. De la régression LARS au modèle à facteurs," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 31-48.
    2. Catherine Doz & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "A Quasi–Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large, Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1014-1024, November.
    3. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2008. "Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 304-317, October.
    4. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2011. "A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 188-205, September.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61q8alqn is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Karim Barhoumi & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2010. "Are disaggregate data useful for factor analysis in forecasting French GDP?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 132-144.
    7. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
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    Keywords

    Prévision du PIB; Modèles à facteurs;

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