IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oec/stdkab/5jrxqbwckbzv.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What's behind the survey values?: An analysis of individual forecasters' behaviour

Author

Listed:
  • Maritta Paloviita
  • Matti Viren

Abstract

This paper studies the internal consistency of professional forecasts on a micro level using three alternative data sets. The analysis is mainly based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasts for the euro area, but for comparison we also study the Consensus Economics survey and Survey of Professional Forecasts for the US. Forecast uncertainty is explored using two alternative measures, the conventional standard deviation of individual point forecasts and the mean uncertainty based on subjective probability distributions of survey respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual forecasters’ price and real GDP expectations are positively related, but that forecasters deviate systematically from each other. We also find clear evidence that individual forecasters form expectations according to the hybrid specification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. On a micro level, inflation uncertainty seems to be closely related to output uncertainty. However, the relationship between alternative measures of uncertainty is relatively weak.

Suggested Citation

  • Maritta Paloviita & Matti Viren, 2015. "What's behind the survey values?: An analysis of individual forecasters' behaviour," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2014(2), pages 25-43.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5jrxqbwckbzv
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2014-5jrxqbwckbzv
    Download Restriction: Full text available to READ online. PDF download available to OECD iLibrary subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kortelainen, Mika & Paloviita, Maritta & Viren, Matti, 2016. "How useful are measured expectations in estimation and simulation of a conventional small New Keynesian macro model?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 540-550.
    2. Víctor López-Pérez, 2017. "Do professional forecasters behave as if they believed in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the euro area?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 147-174, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Survey data; Expectations; Phillips curve;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:stdkab:5jrxqbwckbzv. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/oecddfr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.