Unveiling the future: predicting unforeseen natural environmental disasters in the Mediterranean and Balkan areas in the face of climate change

In recent years, there has been a worrying increase in the frequency and intensity of unexpected natural disasters, including floods, wildfires, earthquakes, and severe storms. Trend analysis reveals a troubling connection between climate change and the increasing occurrence of these calamities, with areas once considered relatively safe now facing increased vulnerability. Specifically, regions such as Western Europe have experienced extreme rainfall, while the Mediterranean has seen intensified droughts, both of which have disrupted local economies and created serious public safety risks. Meteorological forecasts indicate that these trends will persist, with the severity of these disasters expected to increase. The purpose is to identify statistically significant trends across various hazard categories—meteorological, climatological, hydrological, and geophysical—and to provide short-term forecasts aimed at supporting regional disaster risk reduction and policy planning. Using data from the EM-DAT database spanning several decades, we applied linear, quadratic, and exponential trend models to analyze past behavior and generate five-year projections (2024–2028). As a result, it is essential for policymakers and communities to prioritize effective disaster preparedness and promote sustainable practices to reduce future impacts. Our initial analysis compares past decades with the current, more challenging decade, as well as contrasts different global regions. Furthermore, trend analysis highlights the severity of the ongoing climate crisis in terms of both occurrence and loss. Our aim is to provide evidence-based insight into natural disaster dynamics in the Mediterranean and the Balkan regions, by analyzing historical trends and forecasting short-term future patterns in disaster occurrences, fatalities and economic losses. Understanding these trends not only helps forecasting but also underscores the urgent need for collective action to address the underlying factors driving this escalating crisis. Our findings reveal a statistically significant increase in the frequency and economic losses of meteorological and climatological hazards, while geophysical hazards show no consistent trend. These results highlight the growing relevance of climate-sensitive risks and the urgent need for targeted adaptation strategies across vulnerable regions.