IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vls/finstu/v29y2025i3p6-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessment Of The Exchange Rate Risk Exposure In Tunisia'S External Public Debt Portfolio: A Delta-Normal Var Approach In The Context Of Sustainable Finance Development

Author

Listed:
  • CHANNOUFI, Sabrine

    (University of Economics and Management Tunis El Manar, Tunisia.)

Abstract

This paper assesses the exchange rate risk exposure of Tunisia’s external public debt portfolio using the delta-normal Value at Risk (VaR) approach. Based on daily data from 2004 to 2019, focusing on the main borrowing currencies (the euro, US dollar, and Japanese yen), the study identifies the riskiest currencies and offers policy recommendations. The findings highlight significant exposure to the Japanese yen, while the US dollar appears to act as a hedge against currency volatility. The research underscores the importance of adjusting the portfolio structure based on currency risk profiles and Tunisia’s trade dynamics. This analysis contributes to the broader objective of sustainable public finance development by promoting more resilient and responsible debt management practices.

Suggested Citation

  • CHANNOUFI, Sabrine, 2025. "Assessment Of The Exchange Rate Risk Exposure In Tunisia'S External Public Debt Portfolio: A Delta-Normal Var Approach In The Context Of Sustainable Finance Development," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 29(3), pages 6-29, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:29:y:2025:i:3:p:6-29
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.icfm.ro/RePEc/vls/vls_pdf/vol29i3p6-29.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Farhan Akbar & Thierry Chauveau, 2009. "Exchange Rate Risk Exposure Related to Public Debt Portfolio of Pakistan: Application of Value-at-Risk Approaches," Post-Print hal-00649101, HAL.
    2. Mohamed Bouabidi, 2023. "The surge in Tunisia foreign debt: causes and possible ways out," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-23, March.
    3. Fisera, Boris & Workie Tiruneh, Menbere & Hojdan, David, 2021. "Currency depreciations in emerging economies: A blessing or a curse for external debt management?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 132-165.
    4. Diego Nocetti, 2006. "Central Bank's Value at Risk and Financial Crises: An Application to the 2001 Argentine Crisis," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 381-402, November.
    5. Diego Nocetti, 2006. "Central bank´s value at risk and financial crises: An application to the 2001 Argentine crisis," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 9, pages 381-402, November.
    6. World Bank, 2007. "Managing Public Debt : From Diagnostics to Reform Implementation," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6658.
    7. Farhan Akbar & Thierry Chauveau, 2009. "Exchange Rate Risk Exposure Related to Public Debt Portfolio of Pakistan: Application of Value-at-Risk Approaches," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00649101, HAL.
    8. Samia Omrane, 2012. "Une analyse de l’exposition au risque de change du portefeuille de la dette publique de la Tunisie: application de l’approche VaR," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(1), pages 59-87.
    9. Miss Liliana B Schumacher & Mr. Mario I. Bléjer, 1998. "Central Bank Vulnerability and the Credibility of Commitments: A Value-at-Risk Approach to Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 1998/065, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Farhan Akbar & Thierry Chauveau, 2009. "An Analysis of Exchange Rate Risk Exposure Related to Public Debt Portfolio of Pakistan: Beyond Delta-Normal VAR Approach," SBP Working Paper Series 30, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Farhan Akbar & Thierry Chauveau, 2009. "An Analysis of Exchange Rate Risk Exposure Related to Public Debt Portfolio of Pakistan: Beyond Delta-Normal VAR Approach," SBP Working Paper Series 30, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    2. Shah Hussain, 2009. "Misalignment of Real Exchange Rate with its Equilibrium Path: Case of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 5, pages 1-14.
    3. Yucel, Eray, 2011. "A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models," MPRA Paper 32893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Korol Tomasz, 2017. "Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 13(2), pages 22-35, December.
    5. Guillermo Peña, 2017. "Money, Lending and Banking Crises," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(4), pages 444-458, December.
    6. Mudakkar, Syeda Rabab & Uppal, Jamshed Y. & Zaman, Khalid & Naseem, Imran & Shah, Ghias Ud Din, 2013. "Foreign exchange risk in a managed float regime: A case study of Pakistani rupee," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 409-417.
    7. Martin Melecky, 2012. "Choosing The Currency Structure Of Foreign‐Currency Debt: A Review Of Policy Approaches," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 133-151, March.
    8. Endo, Tadashi, 2022. "Endogenous market development for government securities in lower-income economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    9. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2023. "A balance‐sheet approach to fiscal sustainability," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(1), pages 61-84, March.
    10. Winkler, Adalbert, 2001. "On the need for an international lender of last resort: Lessons from domestic financial markets," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 28, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    11. Schobert, Franziska, 2006. "Linking financial soundness and independence of central banks--Central and Eastern Europe, Turkey and CIS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 239-255, June.
    12. Coulibaly, Issiaka & Gnimassoun, Blaise & Mighri, Hamza & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "International reserves, currency depreciation and public debt: New evidence of buffer effects in Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Mr. Alain Ize, 2005. "Capitalizing Central Banks: A Net Worth Approach," IMF Working Papers 2005/015, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Martina Kämpfe & Tobias Knedlik, 2021. "The appropriateness of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 123-139, February.
    15. Knedlik, Tobias & Scheufele, Rolf, 2007. "Three methods of forecasting currency crises: Which made the run in signaling the South African currency crisis of June 2006?," IWH Discussion Papers 17/2007, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    16. Borer, Daniel & Perera, Devmali & Fauzi, Fitriya & Chau, Trinh Nguyen, 2023. "Identifying systemic risk of assets during international financial crises using Value at Risk elasticities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    17. Cormier, Benjamin, 2021. "Interests over institutions: political-economic constraints on public debt management in developing countries," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 112595, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Yilmaz, Sakir Devrim & Ben-Nasr, Sawsen & Mantes, Achilleas & Ben-Khalifa, Nihed & Daghari, Issam, 2025. "Climate change, loss of agricultural output and the macroeconomy: The case of Tunisia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    19. Boris Fisera & Menbere Workie Tiruneh, 2023. "Beyond the Balassa-Samuelson Effect: Do Remittances Trigger the Dutch Disease?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 61(1), pages 23-65, January.
    20. Mr. Peter Stella, 2002. "Central Bank Financial Strength, Transparency, and Policy Credibility," IMF Working Papers 2002/137, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:29:y:2025:i:3:p:6-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniel Mateescu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfiarro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.