Modeling the FIBOR/EURIBOR Swap Term Structure : An Empirical Approach
In this study we forecast the term structure of FIBOR/EURIBOR swap rates by means of recursive vector autoregressive (VAR) models. In advance, a principal components analysis (PCA) is adopted to reduce the dimensionality of the term structure. To evaluate ex?ante forecasting performance for particular short, medium and long term rates and for the level, slope and curvature of the swap term structure, we rely on measures of both statistical and economic performance. Whereas the statistical performance is investigated by means of the Henrikkson?Merton statistic, the economic performance is assessed in terms of cash flows implied by alternative trading strategies. Arguing in favor of local homogeneity of term structure dynamics, we propose a data driven, adaptive model selection strategy to ?predict the best forecasting model? out of a set of 100 alternative implementations of the PCA/VAR model. This approach is shown to outperform forecasting schemes relying on global homogeneity of the term structure.
|Date of creation:||2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: D-24098 Kiel,Wilhelm-Seelig-Platz 1|
Phone: 0431-880 3282
Fax: 0431-880 3150
Web page: http://www.vwl.uni-kiel.de/en
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
- Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Ravit E. Mandell, 2006.
"The Market Price of Risk in Interest Rate Swaps: The Roles of Default and Liquidity Risks,"
The Journal of Business,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2337-2360, September.
- Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis A. & Mandell, Ravit E., 2004. "The Market Price Of Risk In Interest Rate Swaps: The Roles Of Default And Liquidity Risks," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt5z42g22g, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Blake, Christopher R, 1995. " Fundamental Economic Variables, Expected Returns, and Bond Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1229-56, September.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002.
"Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2003. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Wolfgang Hardle & Helmut Herwartz & Vladimir Spokoiny, 2003.
"Time Inhomogeneous Multiple Volatility Modeling,"
Journal of Financial Econometrics,
Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 1(1), pages 55-95.
- Wolfgang Haerdle & Helmut Herwartz & Volodia Spokoiny, 2000. "Time Inhomogeneous Multiple Volatility Modelling," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1429, Econometric Society.
- Härdle, Wolfgang & Herwartz, Helmut & Spokoiny, Vladimir G., 2001. "Time inhomogeneous multiple volatility modelling," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,7, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-33, October.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014.
"A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March.
- Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003.
"A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert R. Bliss, 1997. "Movements in the term structure of interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 4, pages 16-33.
- Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. " An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
- Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. " Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-82, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, December.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991.
"Time-Varying Volatility and the Dynamic Behavior of the Term Structure,"
NBER Working Papers
3682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Time-Varying Volatility and the Dynamic Behavior of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 336-49, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cauewp:2987. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.