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A Three-Factor Yield Curve Model: Non-Affine Structure, Systematic Risk Sources, and Generalized Duration

Author

Listed:
  • Francis X. Diebold

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Lei Ji

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Canlin Li

    () (Graduate School of Management, University of California)

Abstract

We assess and apply the term-structure model introduced by Nelson and Siegel (1987) and re-interpreted by Diebold and Li (2003) as a modern three-factor model of level, slope and curvature. First, we ask whether the model is a member of the affine class, and we find that it is not. Hence the poor forecasting performance recently documented for affine term structure models in no way implies that our model will forecast poorly, which is consistent with Diebold and Li's (2003) finding that it indeed forecasts quite well. Next, having clarified the relationship between our three-factor model and the affine class, we proceed to assess its adequacy directly, by testing whether its level, slope and curvature factors do indeed capture systematic risk. We find that they do, and that they are therefore priced. Finally, confident in the ability of our three-factor model to capture the pricing relations present in the data, we proceed to explore its efficacy in bond portfolio risk management. Traditional Macaulay duration is appropriate only in a one-factor (level) context; hence we move to a three-factor generalized duration, and we show the superior performance of hedges constructed using it.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis X. Diebold & Lei Ji & Canlin Li, 2006. "A Three-Factor Yield Curve Model: Non-Affine Structure, Systematic Risk Sources, and Generalized Duration," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:06-017
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
    2. Baek, Seungho & Bilson, John F.O., 2015. "Size and value risk in financial firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 295-326.
    3. Leo Krippner, 2009. "A theoretical foundation for the Nelson and Siegel class of yield curve models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Gimeno, Ricardo & Nave, Juan M., 2009. "A genetic algorithm estimation of the term structure of interest rates," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2236-2250, April.
    5. Md Akhtaruzzaman & Paul Docherty & Abul Shamsuddin, 2014. "Interest rate, size and book-to-market effects in Australian financial firms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3005-3020, September.
    6. repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:19:p:1855-1874 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure; Yield curve; Factor model; Risk Management;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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