IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jrisks/v9y2021i4p60-d524060.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Immunization Strategies for Funding Multiple Inflation-Linked Retirement Income Benefits

Author

Listed:
  • Cláudia Simões

    (Risk Management Department, Banco de Portugal, 1100-150 Lisboa, Portugal
    Alumni, Lisbon University Institute (ISCTE-IUL), 1649-026 Lisboa, Portugal)

  • Luís Oliveira

    (Department of Finance, Lisbon University Institute (ISCTE-IUL) and Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL), 1649-026 Lisboa, Portugal)

  • Jorge M. Bravo

    (NOVA IMS—Information Management School, New University of Lisbon, 1070-312 Lisboa, Portugal
    Department of Economics, Université Paris-Dauphine PSL, 75775 Paris, France)

Abstract

Protecting against unexpected yield curve, inflation, and longevity shifts are some of the most critical issues institutional and private investors must solve when managing post-retirement income benefits. This paper empirically investigates the performance of alternative immunization strategies for funding targeted multiple liabilities that are fixed in timing but random in size (inflation-linked), i.e., that change stochastically according to consumer price or wage level indexes. The immunization procedure is based on a targeted minimax strategy considering the M-Absolute as the interest rate risk measure. We investigate to what extent the inflation-hedging properties of ILBs in asset liability management strategies targeted to immunize multiple liabilities of random size are superior to that of nominal bonds. We use two alternative datasets comprising daily closing prices for U.S. Treasuries and U.S. inflation-linked bonds from 2000 to 2018. The immunization performance is tested over 3-year and 5-year investment horizons, uses real and not simulated bond data and takes into consideration the impact of transaction costs in the performance of immunization strategies and in the selection of optimal investment strategies. The results show that the multiple liability immunization strategy using inflation-linked bonds outperforms the equivalent strategy using nominal bonds and is robust even in a nearly zero interest rate scenario. These results have important implications in the design and structuring of ALM liability-driven investment strategies, particularly for retirement income providers such as pension schemes or life insurance companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Cláudia Simões & Luís Oliveira & Jorge M. Bravo, 2021. "Immunization Strategies for Funding Multiple Inflation-Linked Retirement Income Benefits," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-28, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:4:p:60-:d:524060
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/4/60/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/9/4/60/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khang, Chulsoon, 1983. "A Dynamic Global Portfolio Immunization Strategy in the World of Multiple Interest Rate Changes: A Dynamic Immunization and Minimax Theorem," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 355-363, September.
    2. Ventura Bravo, Jorge Miguel & Pereira da Silva, Carlos Manuel, 2006. "Immunization using a stochastic-process independent multi-factor model: The Portuguese experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 133-156, January.
    3. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
    4. Shiu, Elias S. W., 1988. "Immunization of multiple liabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 219-224, December.
    5. Fong, H Gifford & Vasicek, Oldrich A, 1984. "A Risk Minimizing Strategy for Portfolio Immunization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1541-1546, December.
    6. Khang, Chulsoon, 1979. "Bond Immunization When Short-Term Interest Rates Fluctuate More Than Long-Term Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(5), pages 1085-1090, December.
    7. Jorge Miguel Bravo, 2019. "Funding for longer lives. Retirement wallet and risk-sharing annuities," EKONOMIAZ. Revista vasca de Economía, Gobierno Vasco / Eusko Jaurlaritza / Basque Government, vol. 96(02), pages 268-291.
    8. Chen, Ren-Raw & Liu, Bo & Cheng, Xiaolin, 2010. "Pricing the term structure of inflation risk premia: Theory and evidence from TIPS," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 702-721, September.
    9. Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2002. "Dynamic Asset Allocation under Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1201-1238, June.
    10. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "Fixed income strategies of insurance companies and pension funds," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 44, december.
    11. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Michaely, Roni, 1990. "The Structure of Spot Rates and Immunization," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 629-642, June.
    12. Alina Kondratiuk-Janyska & Marek Kaluszka, 2009. "On new immunization strategies under random shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 19(1), pages 91-101.
    13. Bravo, Jorge Miguel & El Mekkaoui de Freitas, Najat, 2018. "Valuation of longevity-linked life annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 212-229.
    14. Xueping Wu, 2000. "A New Stochastic Duration Based on the Vasicek and CIR Term Structure Theories," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7‐8), pages 911-932, September.
    15. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138.
    16. Bravo, Jorge M. & Ayuso, Mercedes & Holzmann, Robert & Palmer, Edward, 2021. "Addressing the life expectancy gap in pension policy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 200-221.
    17. Francis X. Diebold & Lei Ji & Canlin Li, 2006. "A Three-Factor Yield Curve Model: Non-Affine Structure, Systematic Risk Sources and Generalized Duration," Chapters, in: Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Long-run Growth and Short-run Stabilization, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Luís Oliveira & João Vidal Nunes & Luís Malcato, 2014. "The performance of deterministic and stochastic interest rate risk measures:," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 13(3), pages 141-165, December.
    19. Gultekin, N Bulent & Rogalski, Richard J, 1984. "Alternative Duration Specifications and the Measurement of Basis Risk: Empirical Tests," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 241-264, April.
    20. Xueping Wu, 2000. "A New Stochastic Duration Based on the Vasicek and CIR Term Structure Theories," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7‐8), pages 911-932, September.
    21. Prisman, Eliezer Z. & Shores, Marilyn R., 1988. "Duration measures for specific term structure estimations and applications to bond portfolio immunization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 493-504, September.
    22. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138.
    23. Sven Klingler & Suresh Sundaresan, 2019. "An Explanation of Negative Swap Spreads: Demand for Duration from Underfunded Pension Plans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 675-710, April.
    24. Ayuso, Mercedes & Bravo, Jorge M. & Holzmann, Robert, 2021. "Getting life expectancy estimates right for pension policy: period versus cohort approach," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 212-231, April.
    25. Gajek, Lesław & Krajewska, Elżbieta, 2013. "A new immunization inequality for random streams of assets, liabilities and interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 624-631.
    26. Soto, Gloria M., 2004. "Duration models and IRR management: A question of dimensions?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1089-1110, May.
    27. Bravo, Jorge M. & Herce, Jose A., 2022. "Career breaks, broken pensions? Long-run effects of early and late-career unemployment spells on pension entitlements," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 191-217, April.
    28. Laatsch, Francis E. & Klein, Daniel P., 2005. "The nominal duration of TIPS bonds," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 47-60.
    29. Ingersoll, Jonathan E. & Skelton, Jeffrey & Weil, Roman L., 1978. "Duration Forty Years Later," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 627-650, November.
    30. Joel Barber & Mark Copper, 1998. "Bond immunization for additive interest rate shocks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 77-84, June.
    31. Au, Kelly T. & Thurston, David C., 1995. "A new class of duration measures," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 371-375, March.
    32. Shiu, Elias S. W., 1987. "On the Fisher-Weil immunization theorem," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 259-266, November.
    33. Michael Theobald & Peter Yallup, 2010. "Liability-driven investment: multiple liabilities and the question of the number of moments," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 413-435.
    34. Man Chung Fung & Katja Ignatieva & Michael Sherris, 2019. "Managing Systematic Mortality Risk in Life Annuities: An Application of Longevity Derivatives," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, January.
    35. Bierwag, G. O., 1977. "Immunization, Duration, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(5), pages 725-742, December.
    36. Balbas, Alejandro & Ibanez, Alfredo, 1998. "When can you immunize a bond portfolio?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1571-1595, December.
    37. Tsai, Cary Chi-Liang & Chung, San-Lin, 2013. "Actuarial applications of the linear hazard transform in mortality immunization," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 48-63.
    38. Olivier de La Grandville, 2003. "Bond Pricing and Portfolio Analysis: Protecting Investors in the Long Run," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262541459, April.
    39. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    40. Fisher, Lawrence & Weil, Roman L, 1971. "Coping with the Risk of Interest-Rate Fluctuations: Returns to Bondholders from Naive and Optimal Strategies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(4), pages 408-431, October.
    41. Jennifer L. Wang & H.C. Huang & Sharon S. Yang & Jeffrey T. Tsai, 2010. "An Optimal Product Mix for Hedging Longevity Risk in Life Insurance Companies: The Immunization Theory Approach," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 473-497, June.
    42. Bravo, Jorge M. & Nunes, João Pedro Vidal, 2021. "Pricing longevity derivatives via Fourier transforms," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-97.
    43. Nawalkha, Sanjay K. & Soto, Gloria M. & Zhang, Jun, 2003. "Generalized M-vector models for hedging interest rate risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1581-1604, August.
    44. Knez, Peter J & Litterman, Robert & Scheinkman, Jose Alexandre, 1994. "Explorations into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1861-1882, December.
    45. Chambers, Donald R. & Carleton, Willard T. & McEnally, Richard W., 1988. "Immunizing Default-Free Bond Portfolios with a Duration Vector," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 89-104, March.
    46. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1979. "Duration and the Measurement of Basis Risk," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(1), pages 51-61, January.
    47. Geoffrey Poitras, 2013. "Partial Immunization Bounds And Non-Parallel Term Structure Shifts," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 1-27.
    48. Emmanouil Platanakis & Charles Sutcliffe, 2017. "Asset–liability modelling and pension schemes: the application of robust optimization to USS," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 324-352, March.
    49. Luciano, Elisa & Regis, Luca & Vigna, Elena, 2012. "Delta–Gamma hedging of mortality and interest rate risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 402-412.
    50. Mercedes Ayuso & Jorge M. Bravo & Robert Holzmann & Edward Palmer, 2021. "Automatic Indexation of the Pension Age to Life Expectancy: When Policy Design Matters," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-28, May.
    51. Balbas, Alejandro & Ibanez, Alfredo & Lopez, Susana, 2002. "Dispersion measures as immunization risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1229-1244, June.
    52. Bierwag, G. O. & Kaufman, George G. & Toevs, Alden, 1983. "Immunization Strategies for Funding Multiple Liabilities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 113-123, March.
    53. Changyu Liu & Michael Sherris, 2017. "Immunization and Hedging of Post Retirement Income Annuity Products," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-29, March.
    54. Fooladi, Iraj & Roberts, Gordon S., 1992. "Bond portfolio immunization: Canadian tests," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-17, February.
    55. Agca, Senay, 2005. "The Performance of Alternative Interest Rate Risk Measures and Immunization Strategies under a Heath-Jarrow-Morton Framework," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(3), pages 645-669, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Mohammad Hashem Botshekan & Camelia Oprean-Stan & Amir Takaloo, 2023. "Optimization of Asset and Liability Management of Banks with Minimum Possible Changes," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-24, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ventura Bravo, Jorge Miguel & Pereira da Silva, Carlos Manuel, 2006. "Immunization using a stochastic-process independent multi-factor model: The Portuguese experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 133-156, January.
    2. Luís Oliveira & João Vidal Nunes & Luís Malcato, 2014. "The performance of deterministic and stochastic interest rate risk measures:," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 13(3), pages 141-165, December.
    3. Jorge Miguel Ventura Bravo & Carlos Manuel Pereira da Silva, 2005. "Immunization Using a Parametric Model of the Term Structure," Economics Working Papers 19_2005, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    4. Joseba Iñaki De La Peña & Iván Iturricastillo & Rafael Moreno & Francisco Román & Eduardo Trigo, 2021. "Towards an immunization perfect model?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1181-1196, January.
    5. Balbas, Alejandro & Ibanez, Alfredo, 1998. "When can you immunize a bond portfolio?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1571-1595, December.
    6. Michael Theobald & Peter Yallup, 2010. "Liability-driven investment: multiple liabilities and the question of the number of moments," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 413-435.
    7. Balbas, Alejandro & Ibanez, Alfredo & Lopez, Susana, 2002. "Dispersion measures as immunization risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1229-1244, June.
    8. Barber, Joel R. & Copper, Mark L., 1998. "A minimax risk strategy for portfolio immunization," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 173-177, November.
    9. Almeida, Caio & Lund, Bruno, 2014. "Immunization of Fixed-Income Portfolios Using an Exponential Parametric Model," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 34(2), November.
    10. Victor Lapshin, 2021. "Immunizing a Marked-to-Model Obligation with Marked-to-Market Financial Instruments," HSE Working papers WP BRP 84/FE/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Marek Kałuszka & Alina Kondratiuk-Janyska, 2004. "On Duration-Dispersion Strategies for Portfolio Immunization," FindEcon Chapters: Forecasting Financial Markets and Economic Decision-Making, in: Władysław Milo & Piotr Wdowiński (ed.), Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica nr 177/2004 - Forecasting and Decision-Making in Financial Markets, edition 1, volume 127, chapter 12, pages 191-202, University of Lodz.
    12. Soto, Gloria M., 2001. "Immunization derived from a polynomial duration vector in the Spanish bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1037-1057, June.
    13. Nawalkha, Sanjay K. & Soto, Gloria M. & Zhang, Jun, 2003. "Generalized M-vector models for hedging interest rate risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1581-1604, August.
    14. Mercedes Ayuso & Jorge M. Bravo & Robert Holzmann & Edward Palmer, 2021. "Automatic Indexation of the Pension Age to Life Expectancy: When Policy Design Matters," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-28, May.
    15. Bravo, Jorge M. & Ayuso, Mercedes & Holzmann, Robert & Palmer, Edward, 2021. "Addressing the life expectancy gap in pension policy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 200-221.
    16. Grishchenko, Olesya V. & Vanden, Joel M. & Zhang, Jianing, 2016. "The informational content of the embedded deflation option in TIPS," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-26.
    17. Changyu Liu & Michael Sherris, 2017. "Immunization and Hedging of Post Retirement Income Annuity Products," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-29, March.
    18. Francis X. Diebold & Lei Ji & Canlin Li, 2006. "A Three-Factor Yield Curve Model: Non-Affine Structure, Systematic Risk Sources and Generalized Duration," Chapters, in: Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Long-run Growth and Short-run Stabilization, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Joel Barber & Mark Copper, 1998. "Bond immunization for additive interest rate shocks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 77-84, June.
    20. Soto, Gloria M., 2004. "Duration models and IRR management: A question of dimensions?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1089-1110, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:9:y:2021:i:4:p:60-:d:524060. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.