Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand
Even though tourism has been recognized as one of the key sectors for the Thai economy, international tourism demand, or tourist arrivals, to Thailand have recently experienced dramatic fluctuations. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the relationship between the demand for international tourism to Thailand and its major determinants. The paper includes arrivals from the USA, which represents the long haul inbound market, from Japan as the most important medium haul inbound market, and from Malaysia as the most important short haul inbound market. The time series of tourist arrivals and economic determinants from 1971 to 2005 are examined using ARIMA with exogenous variables (ARMAX) models to analyze the relationships between tourist arrivals from these countries to Thailand. The economic determinants and ARMA are used to predict the effects of the economic, financial and political determinants on the numbers of tourists to Thailand.
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| Length: | 29 pages |
| Date of creation: | 01 Mar 2010 |
| Handle: | RePEc:cbt:econwp:10/05 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand Phone: 64 3 369 3123 (Administrator) Fax: 64 3 364 2635 Web page: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz More information through EDIRC
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Chia-Lin Chang & Michael Mcaleer, 2009.
"Daily Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rates and Voatility for Korea and Taiwan,"
Korean Economic Review,
Korean Economic Association, vol. 25, pages 241-267.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Daily Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rates and Volatility for Korea and Taiwan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-691, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2009. "Daily tourist arrivals, exchange rates and volatility for Korea and Taiwan," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-41, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2009. "Daily Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rates and Volatility for Korea and Taiwan," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-41, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer, 2009. "Daily Tourist Arrivals, Exchange Rates and Volatility for Korea and Taiwan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-192, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Dan Slottje, 2009. "Modelling International Tourist Arrivals and Volatility: An Application to Taiwan," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0097, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Dan Slottje, 2009. "Modelling International Tourist Arrivals and Volatility: An Application to Taiwan," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2009-06, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Franses, Philip Hans, 1991. "Seasonality, non-stationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 199-208, August.
- Antonio Aguirre, 2000. "Testing for seasonal unit roots using monthly data," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td139, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
- Joseph Beaulieu, J. & Miron, Jeffrey A., 1993. "Seasonal unit roots in aggregate U.S. data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 305-328.
- J. Joseph Beaulieu & Jeffrey A. Miron, 1992. "Seasonal Unit Roots in Aggregate U.S. Data," NBER Technical Working Papers 0126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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