Time Series Modelling of Tourism Demand from the USA, Japan and Malaysia to Thailand
Even though tourism has been recognized as one of the key sectors for the Thai economy, international tourism demand, or tourist arrivals, to Thailand have recently experienced dramatic fluctuations. The purpose of the paper is to investigate the relationship between the demand for international tourism to Thailand and its major determinants. The paper includes arrivals from the USA, which represents the long haul inbound market, from Japan as the most important medium haul inbound market, and from Malaysia as the most important short haul inbound market. The time series of tourist arrivals and economic determinants from 1971 to 2005 are examined using ARIMA with exogenous variables (ARMAX) models to analyze the relationships between tourist arrivals from these countries to Thailand. The economic determinants and ARMA are used to predict the effects of the economic, financial and political determinants on the numbers of tourists to Thailand.
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| Length: | 29 pages |
| Date of creation: | 01 Mar 2010 |
| Date of revision: | |
| Handle: | RePEc:cbt:econwp:10/05 |
| Contact details of provider: | Postal: Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand Phone: 64 3 369 3123 (Administrator) Fax: 64 3 364 2635 Web page: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz More information through EDIRC
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Chia-Lin Chang & Michael Mcaleer, 2009.
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- Franses, Philip Hans, 1991. "Seasonality, non-stationarity and the forecasting of monthly time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 199-208, August.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Dan Slottje, 2009.
"Modelling International Tourist Arrivals and Volatility: An Application to Taiwan,"
Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE
0906, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Dan Slottje, 2009. "Modelling International Tourist Arrivals and Volatility: An Application to Taiwan," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0097, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- Antonio Aguirre, 2000. "Testing for seasonal unit roots using monthly data," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td139, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
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