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Deterministic chaos and forecasting in Amazon’s share prices

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Hanias

    (International Hellenic University, Greece)

  • Stefanos Tsakonas

    (University of Thessaly, Greece)

  • Lykourgos Magafas

    (International Hellenic University, Greece)

  • Eleftherios I. Thalassinos

    (University of Piraeus, Greece; University of Malta, Malta)

  • Loukas Zachilas

    (University of Thessaly, Greece)

Abstract

Research background: The application of non-linear analysis and chaos theory modelling on financial time series in the discipline of Econophysics. Purpose of the article: The main aim of the article is to identify the deterministic chaotic behavior of stock prices with reference to Amazon using daily data from Nasdaq-100. Methods: The paper uses nonlinear methods, in particular chaos theory modelling, in a case study exploring and forecasting the daily Amazon stock price. Findings & Value added: The results suggest that the Amazon stock price time series is a deterministic chaotic series with a lot of noise. We calculated the invariant parameters such as the maxi-mum Lyapunov exponent as well as the correlation dimension, managed a two-days-ahead forecast through phase space reconstruction and a grouped data handling method.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Hanias & Stefanos Tsakonas & Lykourgos Magafas & Eleftherios I. Thalassinos & Loukas Zachilas, 2020. "Deterministic chaos and forecasting in Amazon’s share prices," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 15(2), pages 253-273, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:15:y:2020:i:2:p:253-273
    DOI: 10.24136/eq.2020.012
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    Cited by:

    1. Mouna Aloui & Jarboui Anis, 2023. "The Dynamic Relation between the Oil Price Volatility, Stock Market, Exchange and Interest Rate in GCC Countries: Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) Model," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 114-128.
    2. Mohamed Aymen Ben Moussa & Amira El Feidi, 2023. "The Impact of Leverage on Financial Performance of Tunisian Quoted Firms," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 101-116.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    time series; chaos theory; econophysics; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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