IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/esprep/235482.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Catching The Drivers of Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Application of Machine Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Ofori, Isaac Kwesi

Abstract

A conspicuous lacuna in the literature on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is the lack of clarity on variables key for driving and predicting inclusive growth. To address this, I train the machine learning algorithms for the Standard lasso, the Minimum Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (Minimum BIC) lasso, and the Adaptive lasso to study patterns in a dataset comprising 97 covariates of inclusive growth for 43 SSA countries. First, the regularization results show that only 13 variables are key for driving inclusive growth in SSA. Further, the results show that out of the 13, the poverty headcount (US$1.90) matters most. Second, the findings reveal that ‘Minimum BIC lasso’ is best for predicting inclusive growth in SSA. Policy recommendations are provided in line with the region’s green agenda and the coming into force of the African Continental Free Trade Area.

Suggested Citation

  • Ofori, Isaac Kwesi, 2021. "Catching The Drivers of Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Application of Machine Learning," EconStor Preprints 235482, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:235482
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/235482/1/Ofori-2021-Drivers-of-Inclusive-Growth-Using-Machine-Learning.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2019. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2019," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 31066, December.
    2. Savina Gygli & Florian Haelg & Niklas Potrafke & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2019. "The KOF Globalisation Index – revisited," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 543-574, September.
    3. Richardson, Adam & van Florenstein Mulder, Thomas & Vehbi, Tuğrul, 2021. "Nowcasting GDP using machine-learning algorithms: A real-time assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 941-948.
    4. Commission on Growth and Development, 2008. "The Growth Report : Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6507, December.
    5. Lahoti Rahul & Jayadev Arjun & Reddy Sanjay, 2016. "The Global Consumption and Income Project (GCIP): An Overview," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 61-108, June.
    6. Onesmus Mbaabu Mutiiria & Qingjiang Ju & Koffi Dumor, 2020. "Infrastructure and inclusive growth in sub-Saharan Africa: An empirical analysis," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 20(3), pages 187-207, July.
    7. Jin-Kyu Jung & Manasa Patnam & Anna Ter-Martirosyan, 2018. "An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning," IMF Working Papers 2018/230, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ulrike Schneider & Martin Wagner, 2012. "Catching Growth Determinants with the Adaptive Lasso," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(1), pages 71-85, February.
    9. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2019. "Global poverty measurement when relative income matters," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 1-1.
    10. Rahul Anand & Mr. Saurabh Mishra & Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2013. "Inclusive Growth: Measurement and Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2013/135, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Joseph E. Stiglitz & Justin Lin Yifu & Ebrahim Patel (ed.), 2013. "The Industrial Policy Revolution II," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-33523-4, December.
    12. Lustig, Nora & Lopez-Calva, Luis F. & Ortiz-Juarez, Eduardo, 2013. "Declining Inequality in Latin America in the 2000s: The Cases of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 129-141.
    13. World Bank, 2013. "Inclusion Matters : The Foundation for Shared Prosperity [Inclusión social : clave de la prosperidad para todos - resumen]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 16195, December.
    14. Antonio Estache & Elena Ianchovichina & Robert Bacon & Ilhem Salamon, 2013. "Infrastructure and Employment Creation in the Middle East and North Africa," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12237, December.
    15. Tella, Sherriffdeen A. & Alimi, Olorunfemi Y., 2016. "Determinants of Inclusive Growth in Africa: Role of Health and Demographic Changes," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 4(2), July.
    16. Arno J. van Niekerk, 2020. "Towards inclusive growth in Africa," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 519-533, May.
    17. Richardson, Adam & van Florenstein Mulder, Thomas & Vehbi, Tuğrul, 2021. "Nowcasting GDP using machine-learning algorithms: A real-time assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 941-948.
    18. Tkacz, Greg, 2001. "Neural network forecasting of Canadian GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 57-69.
    19. Axel Dreher, 2006. "Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(10), pages 1091-1110.
    20. Zou, Hui, 2006. "The Adaptive Lasso and Its Oracle Properties," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1418-1429, December.
    21. Joseph E. Stiglitz & Justin Yifu Lin (ed.), 2013. "The Industrial Policy Revolution I," International Economic Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-137-33517-3, December.
    22. Caitlin S. Brown & Martin Ravallion & Dominique van de Walle, 2020. "Can the World’s Poor Protect Themselves from the New Coronavirus?," NBER Working Papers 27200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Andrew G. Berg & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2017. "Inequality and Unsustainable Growth: Two Sides of the Same Coin?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(4), pages 792-815, November.
    24. Bruce Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2013. "Industrial Policies, the Creation of a Learning Society, and Economic Development," International Economic Association Series, in: Joseph E. Stiglitz & Justin Yifu Lin (ed.), The Industrial Policy Revolution I, chapter 1, pages 43-71, Palgrave Macmillan.
    25. World Bank, 2020. "Global Economic Prospects, June 2020," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 33748, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Isaac K. Ofori, 2021. "Towards Building Shared Prosperity in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Does the Effect of Economic Integration Compare to Social Equity Policies?," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 21/045, African Governance and Development Institute..
    2. Ofori, Isaac Kwesi & Asongu, Simplice A., 2021. "ICT Diffusion, Foreign Direct Investment and Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 107757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Isaac K. Ofori & Camara K. Obeng & Simplice A. Asongu, 2022. "What Really Drives Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from The Lasso Regularization and Inferential Techniques," Working Papers 22/061, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    4. Isaac K. Ofori & William G. Cantah & Benedict Afful & Saddam Hossain, 2022. "Towards shared prosperity in sub‐Saharan Africa: How does the effect of economic integration compare to social equity policies?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(1), pages 97-113, March.
    5. Ofori, Isaac K. & Osei, Dennis B. & Alagidede, Imhotep P., 2022. "Inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Exploring the interaction between ICT diffusion, and financial development," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(7).
    6. Isaac K. Ofori & Mark K. Armah & Emmanuel E. Asmah, 2021. "Towards the Reversal of Poverty and Income Inequality Setbacks Due to COVID-19: The Role of Globalisation and Resource Allocation," Working Papers 21/043, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    7. Ofori, Isaac & Asongu, Simplice, 2022. "Repackaging FDI for Inclusive Growth: Nullifying Effects and Policy Relevant Thresholds of Governance," MPRA Paper 119052, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ofori, Isaac K. & Asonngu, Simplice A., 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment, Governance and Inclusive Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 108178, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ofori, Isaac K. & Dossou, Marcel A.M. & Asongu, Simplice A. & Armah, Mark K., 2023. "Bridging Africa’s income inequality gap: How relevant is China’s outward FDI to Africa?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(1).
    10. Ofori, Isaac K. & Armah, Mark K. & Taale, Francis & Ofori, Pamela E., 2021. "Addressing the Severity and Intensity of Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Relevant is the ICT and Financial Development Pathway?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue forthcomi.
    11. Ofori, Isaac K. & Osei, Dennis B. & Alagidede, Imhotep P., 2022. "Inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Exploring the interaction between ICT diffusion and financial development," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 46(7).
    12. Ofori, Isaac K. & Gbolonyo, Emmanuel Y. & Toyo Dossou, Marcel A. & Nkrumah, Richard K. & Nkansah, Emmanuel, 2023. "Towards inclusive growth in Africa: Remittances, and financial development interactive effects and thresholds," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Isaac K. Ofori & Toyo A. M. Dossou & Simplice A. Asongu & Mark K. Armah, 2021. "Bridging Africa’s Income Inequality Gap: How Relevant Is China’s Outward FDI to Africa?," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 21/098, African Governance and Development Institute..
    14. Joseph Stiglitz, 2018. "From manufacturing-led export growth to a twenty-first-century inclusive growth strategy: Explaining the demise of a successful growth model and what to do about it," WIDER Working Paper Series 176, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Marijn A. Bolhuis & Brett Rayner, 2020. "The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data," IMF Working Papers 2020/044, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Andrei Dubovik & Adam Elbourne & Bram Hendriks & Mark Kattenberg, 2022. "Forecasting World Trade Using Big Data and Machine Learning Techniques," CPB Discussion Paper 441, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Isaac Kwesi Ofori & Toyo Amègnonna Marcel Dossou & Seyi Saint Akadiri, 2023. "Towards the quest to reduce income inequality in Africa: is there a synergy between tourism development and governance?," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 429-449, February.
    18. Jaehyun Yoon, 2021. "Forecasting of Real GDP Growth Using Machine Learning Models: Gradient Boosting and Random Forest Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 247-265, January.
    19. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2018. "From manufacturing-led export growth to a twenty-first-century inclusive growth strategy: Explaining the demise of a successful growth model and what to do about it," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-176, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Wang, Wencheng & Ning, Zinan & Shu, Yang & Riti, Miriam-Kamah J. & Riti, Joshua Sunday, 2023. "ICT interaction with trade, FDI and financial inclusion on inclusive growth in top African nations ranked by ICT development," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(4).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Clean Fuel; Economic Growth; Machine Learning; Lasso; Sub-Saharan Africa; Regularization; Poverty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:235482. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.