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Using Machine Learning to Target Treatment: The Case of Household Energy Use

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  • Christopher R. Knittel
  • Samuel Stolper

Abstract

We use causal forests to evaluate the heterogeneous treatment effects (TEs) of repeated behavioral nudges towards household energy conservation. The average response is a monthly electricity reduction of 9 kilowatt-hours (kWh), but the full distribution of responses ranges from -30 to +10 kWh. Selective targeting of treatment using the forest raises social net benefits by 12-120 percent, depending on the year and welfare function. Pre-treatment consumption and home value are the strongest predictors of treatment effect. We find suggestive evidence of a "boomerang effect": households with lower consumption than similar neighbors are the ones with positive TE estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher R. Knittel & Samuel Stolper, 2019. "Using Machine Learning to Target Treatment: The Case of Household Energy Use," NBER Working Papers 26531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26531
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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