A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany
Many economic decisions implicitly or explicitly rely on a projection of the medium- or long-term economic development of a country or region. In this paper, we provide a federal long-run projection model for Germany and the German states. The model fea-tures a top-down approach and, as major contribution, uses error correction models to estimate the regional economic development dependent on the national projection. For the medium- and long-term projection of economic activity, we apply a production function approach. We provide a detailed robustness analysis by systematically varying assumptions of the model. Additionally, we explore the effects of different demographic trends on economic development.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Kleine Märkerstrasse 8, 06108 Halle (Saale)|
Phone: (0345) 7753-60
Fax: (0345) 7753-820
Web page: http://www.iwh-halle.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
- BÃ¶rsch-Supan, Axel & Weiss, Matthias, 2011.
"Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line,"
MEA discussion paper series
07148, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- Börsch-Supan, A. & Weiss, M., 2013. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," ROA Research Memorandum 009, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
- Weiss, Matthias & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2011. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48719, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Börsch-Supan, A. & Weiss, M., 2013. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
- Romer, Paul M, 1990.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
- repec:zbw:iwhdps:9-08 is not listed on IDEAS
- Buck, T W & Atkins, M H, 1976. "The Impact of British Regional Policies on Employment Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 118-32, March.
- repec:zbw:iwhwiw:10-09-3 is not listed on IDEAS
- Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991.
"Convergence across States and Regions,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
- repec:zbw:iwhwiw:7-10-3 is not listed on IDEAS
- Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2002.
"Regional development of employment in eastern Germany. An analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques,"
ERSA conference papers
ersa02p263, European Regional Science Association.
- Uwe Blien & Katja Wolf, 2002. "Regional development of employment in eastern Germany: an analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 81(3), pages 391-414.
- repec:zbw:iwhwiw:9-10-4 is not listed on IDEAS
- D C Knudsen & R Barff, 1991. "Shift-Share Analysis as a Linear Model," Environment and Planning A, SAGE Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 421-431, March.
- Sabine Klinger & Katja Wolf, 2009. "Disentangling sector and status effects in German employment growth," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 1257-1278, September.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992.
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Francesca D'Auria & CÃ©cile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- repec:zbw:iwhwiw:6-07-8 is not listed on IDEAS
- Scheufele, Rolf & Ludwig, Udo, 2009. "Der lange Weg der Konvergenz," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 15(10), pages 400-407.
- Julia Kowalewski, 2011. "Specialization and employment development in Germany: An analysis at the regional level," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(4), pages 789-811, November.
- T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
- Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Reinhold Kosfeld & Nina Muraro, 2009. "Auswirkungen der Bevölkerungsentwicklung auf das wirtschaftliche Niveau der Regionen in Deutschland," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200901, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Reinhold Kosfeld & Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Christian Dreger, 2006. "Regional productivity and income convergence in the unified Germany, 1992-2000," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 755-767.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:11-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tobias Henning)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.