A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany
Many economic decisions implicitly or explicitly rely on a projection of the medium- or long-term economic development of a country or region. In this paper, we provide a federal long-run projection model for Germany and the German states. The model fea-tures a top-down approach and, as major contribution, uses error correction models to estimate the regional economic development dependent on the national projection. For the medium- and long-term projection of economic activity, we apply a production function approach. We provide a detailed robustness analysis by systematically varying assumptions of the model. Additionally, we explore the effects of different demographic trends on economic development.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Kleine Märkerstrasse 8, 06108 Halle (Saale)|
Phone: (0345) 7753-60
Fax: (0345) 7753-820
Web page: http://www.iwh-halle.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francesca D'Auria & CÃ©cile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991.
"Convergence across States and Regions,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
- Börsch-Supan, A. & Weiss, M., 2013.
"Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line,"
ROA Research Memorandum
009, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
- BÃ¶rsch-Supan, Axel & Weiss, Matthias, 2011. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," MEA discussion paper series 07148, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
- Weiss, Matthias & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2011. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48719, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Börsch-Supan, A. & Weiss, M., 2013. "Productivity and age: Evidence from work teams at the assembly line," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
- repec:zbw:iwhwiw:10-09-3 is not listed on IDEAS
- Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Reinhold Kosfeld & Nina Muraro, 2009. "Auswirkungen der Bevölkerungsentwicklung auf das wirtschaftliche Niveau der Regionen in Deutschland," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200901, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
- Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
- repec:zbw:iwhwiw:9-10-4 is not listed on IDEAS
- Uwe Blien & Katja Wolf, 2002.
"Regional development of employment in eastern Germany: an analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques,"
Papers in Regional Science,
Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 81(3), pages 391-414.
- Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2002. "Regional development of employment in eastern Germany. An analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques," ERSA conference papers ersa02p263, European Regional Science Association.
- repec:zbw:iwhdps:9-08 is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2135, David K. Levine.
- T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
- Buck, T W & Atkins, M H, 1976. "The Impact of British Regional Policies on Employment Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 118-32, March.
- Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992.
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
- Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence Across States and Regions," Papers 629, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Julia Kowalewski, 2011. "Specialization and employment development in Germany: An analysis at the regional level," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(4), pages 789-811, November.
- Sabine Klinger & Katja Wolf, 2009. "Disentangling sector and status effects in German employment growth," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 1257-1278, September.
- repec:zbw:iwhwiw:6-07-8 is not listed on IDEAS
- Reinhold Kosfeld & Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Christian Dreger, 2006. "Regional productivity and income convergence in the unified Germany, 1992-2000," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 755-767.
- Scheufele, Rolf & Ludwig, Udo, 2009. "Der lange Weg der Konvergenz," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 15(10), pages 400-407.
- D C Knudsen & R Barff, 1991. "Shift-Share Analysis as a Linear Model," Environment and Planning A, SAGE Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 421-431, March.
- repec:zbw:iwhwiw:7-10-3 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:11-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Tobias Henning)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.