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A Federal Long-run Projection Model for Germany

  • Oliver Holtemöller
  • Maike Irrek
  • Birgit Schultz

Many economic decisions implicitly or explicitly rely on a projection of the medium- or long-term economic development of a country or region. In this paper, we provide a federal long-run projection model for Germany and the German states. The model fea-tures a top-down approach and, as major contribution, uses error correction models to estimate the regional economic development dependent on the national projection. For the medium- and long-term projection of economic activity, we apply a production function approach. We provide a detailed robustness analysis by systematically varying assumptions of the model. Additionally, we explore the effects of different demographic trends on economic development.

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Paper provided by Halle Institute for Economic Research in its series IWH Discussion Papers with number 11.

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Date of creation: Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:iwh:dispap:11-12
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  18. Maike Irrek, 2010. "Humankapital im Ost-West-Vergleich: Leichtes Aufholen in den Neuen Bundesländern," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research, vol. 16(7), pages 337-344.
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