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The nowcast revision analysis extended

Author

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  • Hayashi, Fumio
  • Tachi, Yuta

Abstract

The nowcast revision analysis is about the effect of new observations, data revisions, and parameter changes on a nowcast of a fixed target variable. Previously, only the new-observations effect can be broken down by variable. We provide a method for doing the same for the data-revisions and parameter-revisions effects as well. The method is applied to the COVID-battered U.S. GDP growth from 2020:Q1 to Q2.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayashi, Fumio & Tachi, Yuta, 2021. "The nowcast revision analysis extended," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:209:y:2021:i:c:s016517652100389x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.
    2. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    3. Marta Bańbura & Michele Modugno, 2014. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Factor Models On Datasets With Arbitrary Pattern Of Missing Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 133-160, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Matteo Luciani & Michele Modugno, 2023. "Lessons from Nowcasting GDP across the World," International Finance Discussion Papers 1385, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Fumio Hayashi & Yuta Tachi, 2023. "Nowcasting Japan’s GDP," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1699-1735, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nowcast revision analysis; Kalman recursion; Affine function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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