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Anwendung der Extremwerttheorie zur Quantifizierung von Marktpreisrisiken – Test der Relevanz anhand vergangener Extrembelastungen von DAX und MSCI Europe

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  • Michael Pohl

    (Steinbeis-Hochschule Berlin, Lehrstuhl für Wealth Management und Banking, Gürtelstraße 29A/30, D-10247 Berlin)

Abstract

The Extreme Value Theory is an approach designed with the objective to quantify risks which occur with a very low probability. The empirical application of the Extreme Value Theory in terms of the Peaks Over Threshold (POT)-Method to the index declines of the DAX and the MSCI Europe on 11.9.01, 21.1.08 and 16.10.08 in this paper shows that the quality of risk assessment highly depends on the underlying data source. As the analysis shows the resulting risk level during the considered days is clearly linked to the applied threshold. Nevertheless it is shown that the POT-Method beats the assumption of normal distribution and GARCH models with normally distributed and t-distributed innovations – especially after periods of high market volatility – concerning the goodness of risk quantification for the examined events.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Pohl, 2011. "Anwendung der Extremwerttheorie zur Quantifizierung von Marktpreisrisiken – Test der Relevanz anhand vergangener Extrembelastungen von DAX und MSCI Europe," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 44(2), pages 243-278.
  • Handle: RePEc:kuk:journl:v:2:y:2011:i:2:p:243-278
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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