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Can Machine Learning Catch the COVID-19 Recession?

Author

Listed:
  • Marcellino, Massimiliano
  • Stevanovic, Dalibor
  • Goulet Coulombe, Philippe

Abstract

Based on evidence gathered from a newly built large macroeconomic data set for the UK, labeled UK-MD and comparable to similar datasets for the US and Canada, it seems the most promising avenue for forecasting during the pandemic is to allow for general forms of nonlinearity by using machine learning (ML) methods. But not all nonlinear ML methods are alike. For instance, some do not allow to extrapolate (like regular trees and forests) and some do (when complemented with linear dynamic components). This and other crucial aspects of ML-based forecasting in unprecedented times are studied in an extensive pseudo-out-of-sample exercise.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stevanovic, Dalibor & Goulet Coulombe, Philippe, 2021. "Can Machine Learning Catch the COVID-19 Recession?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15867, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15867
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    Cited by:

    1. Longo, Luigi & Riccaboni, Massimo & Rungi, Armando, 2022. "A neural network ensemble approach for GDP forecasting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "Slow-Growing Trees," Working Papers 21-02, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    3. Byron Botha & Rulof Burger & Kevin Kotzé & Neil Rankin & Daan Steenkamp, 2023. "Big data forecasting of South African inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 149-188, July.
    4. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2022. "Forecasting US Inflation Using Bayesian Nonparametric Models," Working Papers 22-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    5. Michael Zhemkov, 2021. "Nowcasting Russian GDP using forecast combination approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 168, pages 10-24.
    6. Goulet Coulombe, Philippe & Leroux, Maxime & Stevanovic, Dalibor & Surprenant, Stéphane, 2021. "Macroeconomic data transformations matter," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1338-1354.
    7. James T. E. Chapman & Ajit Desai, 2023. "Macroeconomic Predictions Using Payments Data and Machine Learning," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-32, November.
    8. Goulet Coulombe, Philippe, 2025. "Time-varying parameters as ridge regressions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 982-1002.
    9. Ying Lun Cheung, 2024. "Identification of Time-Varying Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 76-94, January.
    10. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2023. "Tail Forecasting With Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(3), pages 979-1022, August.
    11. Paul Ho, 2021. "Forecasting in the Absence of Precedent," Working Paper 21-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    12. Kumar, Satish & Rao, Amar & Dhochak, Monika, 2025. "Hybrid ML models for volatility prediction in financial risk management," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    13. Zhang, Qin & Ni, He & Xu, Hao, 2023. "Nowcasting Chinese GDP in a data-rich environment: Lessons from machine learning algorithms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    14. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2020. "To Bag is to Prune," Papers 2008.07063, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
      • Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2021. "To Bag is to Prune," Working Papers 21-03, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Jun 2021.
    15. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin, 2023. "Real-time inflation forecasting using non-linear dimension reduction techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 901-921.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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