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Predicting COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the USA from Tests and State Populations

Author

Listed:
  • David E. Allen

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney, Department of Finance, Asia University, Taiwan, and School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University, Australia)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Department of Finance, College of Management, Asia University, Taiwan)

Abstract

The paper presents a novel analysis of the US spread of the SARS-CoV-2 causes the COVID-19 disease across 50 States and 2 Territories. Simple cross- sectional regressions are able to predict quite accurately both the total number of cases and deaths, which cast doubt on measures aimed at controlling the disease via lockdowns. Population density appears to play a significant role in transmission. This throws in sharp relief the relative effectiveness of the at- tempts to risk manage the spread of the virus by 'flattening the curve' (aka planking the curve) of the speed of transmission, and the efficacy of lockdowns in terms of the spread of the disease and death rates. The algorithmic tech- niques, results and analysis presented in the paper should prove useful to the medical and health professions, science advisers, and risk management and de- cision making of healthcare by state, regional and national governments in all countries.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Allen & Michael McAleer, 2021. "Predicting COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the USA from Tests and State Populations," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(2), pages 1-27, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:aag:wpaper:v:25:y:2021:i:2:p:1-27
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antoine Mandel & Vipin Veetil, 2020. "The Economic Cost of COVID Lockdowns: An Out-of-Equilibrium Analysis," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 431-451, October.
    2. Michael McAleer, 2020. "Prevention Is Better Than the Cure: Risk Management of COVID-19," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-5, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Massoud Moslehpour & Shin Hung Pan & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Wing Keung Wong, 2021. "Editorial in Honour of Professor Michael McAleer," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(4), pages 1-14, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk management; Curve projection; Live data; Global pandemic; COVID 19; Lockdown; CFR.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software

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