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Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ștefan Cristian Gherghina

    (Department of Finance, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 6 Piata Romana, 010374 Bucharest, Romania)

  • Daniel Ștefan Armeanu

    (Department of Finance, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 6 Piata Romana, 010374 Bucharest, Romania)

  • Camelia Cătălina Joldeș

    (Department of Finance, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 6 Piata Romana, 010374 Bucharest, Romania)

Abstract

This paper examines the linkages in financial markets during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. For this purpose, daily stock market returns were used over the period of December 31, 2019–April 20, 2020 for the following economies: USA, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, UK, China, and Romania. The study applied the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to explore whether the Romanian stock market is impacted by the crisis generated by novel coronavirus. Granger causality was employed to investigate the causalities among COVID-19 and stock market returns, as well as between pandemic measures and several commodities. The outcomes of the ARDL approach failed to find evidence towards the impact of Chinese COVID-19 records on the Romanian financial market, neither in the short-term, nor in the long-term. On the other hand, our quantitative approach reveals a negative effect of the new deaths’ cases from Italy on the 10-year Romanian bond yield both in the short-run and long-run. The econometric research provide evidence that Romanian 10-year government bond is more sensitive to the news related to COVID-19 than the index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange. Granger causality analysis reveals causal associations between selected stock market returns and Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index.

Suggested Citation

  • Ștefan Cristian Gherghina & Daniel Ștefan Armeanu & Camelia Cătălina Joldeș, 2020. "Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-35, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:18:p:6729-:d:414041
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    2. Shafa Guliyeva, 2023. "Analysis of the effect of Energy Prices on Stock Indexes During the Epidemic Crisis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 526-536, March.
    3. Wang, Lu & Ruan, Hang & Hong, Yanran & Luo, Keyu, 2023. "Detecting the hidden asymmetric relationship between crude oil and the US dollar: A novel neural Granger causality method," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
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    5. Hua Guo & Yang Zhang & Yanling Peng & Tong Luo & Hong Wang, 2022. "Does COVID-19 Affect Household Financial Behaviors? Fresh Evidence From China," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(3), pages 21582440221, August.

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