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Modeling and forecasting CPI in Mauritius

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  • NYONI, THABANI

Abstract

This paper uses annual time series data on CPI in Mauritius from 1963 to 2017, to model and forecast CPI using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests indicate that the Z series is I (2). The study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 3) model for predicting CPI in Mauritius. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented optimal model is actually stable and acceptable for predicting CPI in Mauritius. The results of the study apparently show that CPI in Mauritius is likely to continue on a very sharp upwards trajectory in the next decade. The study basically encourages policy makers to make use of tight monetary and fiscal policy measures in order to control inflation in Mauritius.

Suggested Citation

  • Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting CPI in Mauritius," MPRA Paper 92423, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:92423
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/92423/1/MPRA_paper_92423.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcos Álvarez-Díaz & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Forecasting the US CPI: Does Nonlinearity Matter?," Working Papers 201512, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Muhammad Imtiaz Subhani & Kiran Panjwani & Amber Osman, 2009. "Relationship between Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Government Bonds," South Asian Journal of Management Sciences (SAJMS), Iqra University, Iqra University, vol. 3(1), pages 11-14, Spring.
    3. Nyoni, Thabani, 2018. "Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting net FDI inflows in Zimbabwe," MPRA Paper 87737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. McAdam, Peter & McNelis, Paul, 2005. "Forecasting inflation with thick models and neural networks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 848-867, September.
    5. Michael J. Boskin, 1998. "Consumer Prices, the Consumer Price Index, and the Cost of Living," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Inflation; Mauritius;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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