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Pronósticos de producción agrícola





En el presente documento se plantean ejercicios econométricos para obtener pronósticos de producción en el corto plazo. La idea central es presentar aplicaciones del análisis de series de tiempo a las series de producción de arroz, palma africana y café. Durante 2005 estas tres actividades representaron, en conjunto, 26.6% de la producción agrícola total. La participación global de estas actividades se explica en 7.8% por la producción de arroz, en 15.7% por la de café y en 3.0% por la de palma africana.

Suggested Citation

  • Constanza MARTINEZ VENTURA, 2006. "Pronósticos de producción agrícola," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 003394, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000118:003394

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Javier A. Birchenall, 2007. "Income distribution and macroeconomics in Colombia," Journal of Income Distribution, Journal of Income Distribution, vol. 16(2), pages 6-24, June.
    2. Castro Carlos Alberto, 2001. "Eficiencia-X en el sector bancario colombiano," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, September.
    3. Juan Carlos ECHEVERRY GARZON, 2002. "El siglo del modelo de desarrollo," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 002552, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    4. Ortega, Juan Ricardo & Piraquive, Gabriel Armando & Hernandez, Gustavo Adolfo & Soto, Carolina & Prada, Sergio & Ramirez, Juan Mauricio, 2000. "Incidencia fiscal de los incentivos tributarios
      [Fiscal Incidence of tax incentives]
      ," MPRA Paper 14016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Thomas F. RUTHERFORD & Miles K. LIGHT & Gustavo Adolfo HERNANDEZ, 2002. "A dynamic general equilibrium model for tax policy analysis in Colombia," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 001910, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    6. Fernando MESA PARRA, 2001. "Strategic Trade Policy and Exchange Rate Uncertainty," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 003527, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
    7. Hernandez, Gustavo Adolfo & Light, Miles & Rutherford, Thomas, 2002. "A dynamic general equilibrium model for tax policy analysis in Colombia," MPRA Paper 28435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Thomas F. Rutherford & Miles K. LIGHT, 2002. "A General Equilibrium Model for Tax Policy Analysis in Colombia: The MEGATAX Model," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 011291, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
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    More about this item


    Pronósticos de producción; series de tiempo; producción agrícola colombina;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods


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